Leandre: Top 30 first basemen entering 2024, 10-1
If you like elite-level offense, the top 10 first basemen entering 2024 is full of it.
It’d be hard to find a more loaded group of hitters than the top 10 first basemen entering the 2024 MLB season.
Known as a position full of offensive firepower, first base has a history of sluggers who, nowadays, know their way around a walk as well.
Though contrary to the position’s billing, seven of the top 10 are at least average-level defenders in terms of defensive runs saved, while two of the three negative defenders were at least 29% above league-average offensively.
Before getting into the top 10, however, let’s check out the 10 who comprised the back half of the top 20.
As we inch closer to the three-week mark before Opening Day, here are the top 10 first basemen entering the season.
10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Toronto Blue Jays
Guerrero has become something of a meme on baseball social media for his lack of production in his home ballpark, the Rogers Centre.
However, that’s slightly overblown after an outlier campaign in 2023 where his wRC+ was 99. Considering how religiously robbed he was at home, sustaining a 99 wRC+ should be considered a success.
In 336 plate appearances in Toronto last year, Guerrero Jr. had a .238/.316/.391 slash line with 10 home runs. From an expected data standpoint, he should’ve slashed .280/.358/.472 — his xwOBA was also 51 points higher than his actual.
I expect a tremendous 2024 season out of the soon-to-be 25-year-old first baseman, potentially as a dark-horse for American League MVP.
9. Triston Casas — Boston Red Sox
Those who paid attention closely to the 2023 Red Sox got a firsthand look at the greatness awaiting their team’s first baseman.
After a dreadful April, the 24-year-old became one of the best hitters in baseball regardless of position.
In his final 410 plate appearances, Casas slashed .291/.385/.531. His 145 wRC+ ranked 11th among 149 hitters in all of baseball from May 1 onward (minimum of 400 plate appearances).
As you shrink the sample size, the numbers continue to get better as well. He may be a perennial 30-plus-homer guy for the next decade — especially considering the authority he hits the ball to left field.
8. Josh Naylor — Cleveland Guardians
I know I said in my Nos. 20-11 article that I predict the Guardians will sign Brandon Belt, but that’s not a knock on Naylor.
Since getting to Cleveland in 2020, it’s been a work in progress for the lefty slugger to emerge as an All-Star-caliber bat. In 2023, he finally put it all together.
In 121 games, he posted a 128 wRC+ with 17 homers and 97 runs batted in. He also hit over .300 for the first time and played strong defense (zero DRS, five OAA).
When he’s rolling, Naylor is one of the most exciting players to watch, as he wears his emotions on his sleeve with the best of them. Think back to the 2022 ALDS against the New York Yankees when he homered off of Gerrit Cole and proceeded to hit the “Rock the Baby” celebration as he rounded the bases.
Players like Naylor are great for the game, especially when he’s cooking as he was in 2023.
7. Pete Alonso — New York Mets
The 2023 campaign wasn’t kind to Alonso.
Not because he was bad, but because he should’ve been way better than he was.
Let’s take a look, shall we? For starters, he posted a .205 average on balls in play which helped tank his average by 54 points from 2022. As a result, he posted his worst wRC+ and fWAR in a non-COVID season of his career.
Actual stats: .217/.318/.504 with a .346 weighted on-base average
Expected stats: .244/.336/.527 with a .367 expected weighted on-base average
That said, he still hit 46 homers and drove in 118 runs in 154 games. While the counting stats are gaudy, his durability also props his rating up, as he’s missed just 24 games since debuting in 2019.
6. Paul Goldschmidt — St. Louis Cardinals
Goldschmidt’s slip in the rankings is more a matter of circumstance than it was a slip in his play.
While he didn’t have the greatest MVP-defending campaign in 2023, two first-basemen were top-four MVP vote-getters, another elite hitter became a first-baseman and a couple of others simply had better seasons.
It’s hard to predict what kind of season is on the horizon for the 35-year-old, especially considering 2023 was his second-worst since 2012. However, I still expect him to firmly remain around the sixth-best given his track record as an elite-level bat with good defense.
5. Christian Walker — Arizona Diamondbacks
I’ve been a Christian Walker truther for a while. Though his 2023 postseason wasn’t spectacular, the world finally got to see him for an extended run.
Over the last two seasons, Walker has 26 defensive runs saved and outs above average, 8.0 fWAR and a 122 wRC+.
While 10 first basemen have a higher wRC+ than him since 2022 (minimum of 500 plate appearances), he’s lapping the field defensively while ranking fifth in fWAR.
4. Yandy Díaz — Tampa Bay Rays
Similar to Walker, I am also a massive Yandy Díaz truther.
He sort of gets lost in the shuffle because he plays for the Rays, but the 32-year-old has posted at least a 139 wRC+ in three of the past four seasons, albeit one was in 34 games during the COVID year.
He’s an on-base machine, for starters, posting a .406 OBP since the start of 2022 — second among first basemen with at least 750 plate appearances. He’s also third in batting average at .314 and seventh in slugging at .475 while being the third-hardest to strike out.
As the saying goes, “The proof is in the pudding.” He belongs in the top five for first basemen.
3. Bryce Harper — Philadelphia Phillies
Before getting into what makes Harper the third-best first baseman entering 2024, let’s give appreciation to the career he’s had to this point.
Not to say he draws comparisons to someone like LeBron James, but he doesn’t get nearly enough credit for being worth the hype that preceded his draft year, a la James. He’s been worth every ounce of the hype and just needs a World Series ring to cement himself as one of the true all-time greats.
*whispers* He already is one, though.
Anyway, Harper took on this position as a part of a means to get into the lineup while he recovered from elbow surgery. While his defense wasn’t top-tier like Walker’s, he posted one defensive run saved and zero outs above average in 303 innings. Considering there are first basemen within this top 10 who were comfortably in the negative for DRS, his positive defensive output is extra impressive for his first true in-game experience at first base.
He’s also still an elite bat. In 2023, he withstood a 38-game homerless stretch yet still finished with 21, a .499 slugging percentage and a 142 wRC+. To tell you the truth, it wouldn’t shock me at all if he won his third MVP in 2024.
2. Matt Olson — Atlanta Braves
I came dangerously close to ranking Olson at No. 1, but just couldn’t bring myself to do so.
For starters, he’s an elite hitter with elite defense. Among the 30 first basemen ranked, he’s first in rWAR, slugging, OPS+ and wOBA while ranking third in defensive runs saved.
He also led the majors with 54 home runs and 139 RBI while being one of only four players to appear in all 162 games a season ago.
1. Freddie Freeman — Los Angeles Dodgers
While Olson led all of those aforementioned categories, Freeman led in fWAR, batting average and tied for first in OBP with Díaz.
Freeman also had a higher wRC+ than Olson and seven more outs above average than him.
To be honest, it’s kind of neat as a baseball fan to see Freeman still dominating outside of Atlanta, but the Braves also still are getting elite production out of the position. To a similar extent, it’s like when Chipper Jones retired and Freeman took over as the main offensive weapon in that Braves lineup — though Atlanta let Freeman walk.
The beauty of the future Hall of Famer is he shows absolutely zero signs of slowing down either, despite inching closer to his 35th birthday. While Father Time seems to catch everyone at some point, Freeman’s coming off the best (full) season of his MLB career.
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