Leandre: Red Sox poised for splash in offseason trade market

In need of a shakeup, the Boston Red Sox are poised to make a big splash this winter on the trade market.

Photo Courtesy of Kevin M. Cox/Getty Images

Another year, another season likely ending after Game 162 for the Boston Red Sox.

While the odds of a postseason berth aren’t zero, it’s growing exceptionally difficult to foresee October baseball coming to Fenway Park.

Thus begs the question: What can Boston do to set itself up better in 2025? In short, the obvious answer is spending more money. With the likes of Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and Tanner Scott, among others, available, opportunity knocks for Boston to dramatically improve its pitching staff by spending money.

However, it’s not that simple. While other teams will absolutely be in the market of these free agents, there’s also not much confidence in Red Sox brass to actually be aggressive financially. As a result, that leaves two options for the club going forward.

First, standing pat and relying on the young guys to continue improving. After all, they can field a pretty competitive roster with guys under team control for 2025.

Don’t believe me? Take a look for yourselves:

SP: Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Lucas Giolito, Richard Fitts - (5)
RP: Garrett Whitlock, Zack Kelly, Michael Fulmer, Brennan Bernardino (L), Zach Penrod (L), Luis Guerrero, Justin Slaten, Liam Hendriks - (8)
C: Connor Wong, Kyle Teel (L) - (2)
1B: Triston Casas (L) - (1)
2B: Vaughn Grissom, David Hamilton (L) - (2)
SS: Trevor Story - (1)
3B: Rafael Devers (L) - (1)
OF: Jarren Duran (L), Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu (L), Rob Refsnyder - (4)
UTIL: Romy Gonzalez - (1)
DH: Masataka Yoshida (L) - (1)

Red Sox begin series at the Trop: Masataka Yoshida batting clean-up; Nick Pivetta makes 12th career start vs. Rays; Casas .143 average in last 17 games

Is that a good team? Not particularly, but there are several All-Stars among that group with a lineup that will finish top 10 in baseball in OPS in 2024 (sans Tyler O’Neill and Danny Jansen).

The fact of the matter is that the foundation is there, with top prospects Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell and the aforementioned Teel knocking on the door.

What does that mean?

It means the Red Sox are poised to make a pretty significant trade this winter, particularly for a marquee starting pitcher with control.

The offseason is a fascinating time, as players you’d never expect to be obtainable end up moved, and players you thought were locks for new threads stay put. It’s a lot like the Trade Deadline, only three months longer and each passing minute without action to a die-hard fan feels like an eternity.

But of all teams this offseason, the Red Sox seem to be the best-positioned to make a trade that hurts. But who goes in such a deal?

Some candidates may shock you; let’s examine the case for some targets on the MLB roster.

1. RHP Kutter Crawford — under control through 2028

Yes, the Boston Red Sox need pitching, so on the surface it appears trading from their rotation makes little sense. Especially somebody like Crawford, who is positioned to be just the seventh Red Sox starting pitcher to make 33 starts in a season since 2015.

However, as previously mentioned, the Red Sox have the skeleton of a competitive roster by simply standing pat this winter. Not included in that mock roster is right-handed pitcher Cooper Criswell, who Boston controls on pre-arbitration next year.

Photo Courtesy of Luke Hales/Getty Images

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Crawford in his first full year as a starting pitcher at the MLB level. In the first half, he was harboring an ERA around three. However, that number jumped to 4.19 thanks to a 6.55 ERA and a staggering 19 home runs allowed since the All-Star Break.

At 28, there’s still a window for the right-hander to improve and be an effective starter for this team. However, as a means to free up space for a big free agent, or welcome in a trade acquisition, I believe there’s a level of expendability there.

It would certainly rattle some cages in the clubhouse, as by all accounts, Crawford is a very well-liked teammate.

2. OF Jarren Duran — under control through 2028

Many think the Boston Red Sox have to clear way for top prospect Roman Anthony to make the big-league club out of Spring Training next year.

To be frank, I’m not sure how practical that is to treat him like a guaranteed positive-value big-leaguer in 2025. You don’t have to look very far back to see the underwhelming rookie campaign of Jackson Holliday, who has a 46 wRC+ and -0.2 fWAR in 185 MLB plate appearances this year.

Wyatt Langford also experienced prolonged struggles (63 wRC+ through May), as did Jackson Chourio (88 wRC+ in the first half). While both rebounded, Holliday didn’t. Coming off of three straight seasons missing the playoffs, is it worth the gamble?

Maybe, but maybe not.

Anyway, Duran makes sense as a trade chip for a couple of reasons, albeit extremely volatile ones. First off, a lot of his game is predicated on speed. Even though 2024 hasn’t been filled with as many hustle doubles as 2023, at least from a feel standpoint, taking the extra bag is part of what makes him great.

Another thing is his age — he’s already 28. In other words, he’s entering the general range of one’s prime.

White Flag: It's time to close the book on the 2024 Red Sox

I’m not buying that Duran cannot sustain very quality production as he ticks over the age of 30. While there’s no track record of him sustaining 20-plus-homer power at the MLB level, there was no track record of him sustaining his production from 2023.

Yet here we are. The maturity issues hopefully continue to get cleaned up as he ages, and obviously there should be no tolerance for some of his choice of language this season when confronting fans, but I think Red Sox fans might want to re-think the idea that he can’t continue being great.

However, should they move him, he’s certainly immensely valuable.

3. OF Wilyer Abreu — under control through 2029

This one would hurt but there are legitimate platoon concerns that follow Abreu into the 2024 offseason.

Through his first 493 MLB plate appearances, only 70 are against lefties. Over that sample, he’s hitting just .182 with a strikeout rate of 32.9% and one home run.

I’m willing to give Abreu another year, for similar reasons mentioned under the aforementioned Duran, but I understand if Boston may be hiding him from lefties so as to not kill his trade value despite being a three-win player against mostly right-handers.

There’s a tough decision coming with the Red Sox outfield, it’s just a matter of when.

4. 1B Triston Casas — under control through 2028

Whether you like it or not, Casas is a trade candidate this winter for a couple of reasons.

For starters, first base isn’t a high-value position. Exhibit A? The Red Sox played above-.500 ball with Dominic Smith at first base. While Smith was a fan favorite, that’s just the point … he posted 0.2 fWAR and a 96 wRC+ in 84 games.

I’m not trying to suggest Boston trade Casas and supplant him with a replacement-level first baseman, but I am suggesting there might be more logic to moving off of him than what’s being led on within the fan base.

Second, Casas has missed significant time battling injuries in recent years. The rib injury at least appears incredibly fluky, but he missed time in 2023 with his shoulder and missed pretty much the entire summer in 2022 with an ankle injury.

With the likes of Christian Walker available this winter, I’d at least be tempted at the idea of Walker + a trade for a marquee starter involving Casas. With my back against the wall, I’d probably still balk at it because of Casas’ upside as a hitter, but there’d be real temptation.

Photo Courtesy of Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

Those are just MLB-level trade considerations for CBO Craig Breslow, not even mentioning Anthony or Teel, or fellow top prospects who could also factor into trades such as Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell.

A big trade will be there for Boston this offseason if they want to get nasty. Yes, the price will almost certainly hurt the average fan, but it’s the price you pay when you’re uncomfortable paying for free agents and struggle developing starting pitching talent.

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