Leandre: Projected Boston Red Sox Opening Day roster 3.0
With less than one week before Opening Day against Baltimore, here is my final roster projections for the Boston Red Sox
For two consecutive weeks, there was minimal difference between my first and second Opening Day roster projections.
To recap, in 1.0, I had infielder Bobby Dalbec and outfielder Jarren Duran making the cut, but missing it for the likes of Yu Chang and Raimel Tapia in 2.0.
Same goes for RHP Josh Winckowski, who became an odd-man-out thanks to the return of RHP Garrett Whitlock.
That said, these are only projections. A lot has changed in the past week: injuries net LHP Joely Rodriguez on the injured list as well as jeopardize the season-opener for promising RHP Wyatt Mills. Those two now need to be replaced.
Moreover, catcher Connor Wong recovered faster than I anticipated –– re-opening the debate between him and Jorge Alfaro as the second catcher.
Anyway –– enough beating around the bush –– here is my third and final projected Opening Day roster for the Red Sox.
Catchers (2)
Reese McGuire (L) and Connor Wong
After giving it a lot of thought, and teetering a ton, I’d settled on Alfaro and McGuire as the catching duo.
With all due respect to Wong, he possesses the least pedigree of the three. Alfaro has too much thump in his stick and McGuire is leaps and bounds the best defensive backstop on the roster.
That said, the Red Sox would have to hope he can improve from his -26 blocks above average and -7 catcher runs the past two seasons.
However, the organization rolls with Wong –– and Alfaro remains in the organization with Triple-A Worcester.
Honestly, that was probably the best-case scenario all along from an organizational standpoint.
Infielders (6)
Christian Arroyo, Triston Casas (L), Yu Chang, Rafael Devers (L), Kiké Hernández and Justin Turner*
*primary designated hitter
Nothing overly shocking here and no changes from my 2.0 roster projection.
One thing of note to me is I am shocked to see Chang make the roster with such little time in camp. You’d have to think he did a lot to make an impression despite posting just a .596 OPS and an 83 wRC+ in 11 games with the Red Sox in 2022.
Not only that but surely tearing up Pool Play in the WBC helped his cause as well.
Outfielders (5)
Adam Duvall, Rob Refsnyder, Raimel Tapia (L), Alex Verdugo (L), Masataka Yoshida (L)
No changes to the outfield, but I wanted to take this section to highlight something I –– along with fellow Beyond the Monster staff –– hashed out on Obstructed View.
Welcome to the Duran conundrum.
Listen, I believe the Red Sox are neither upset with Duran nor mad because he chose to play for Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic.
However, I believe he cost himself a spot on the Opening Day roster because of that decision.
He came into camp and looked like he belonged, something I don’t think we could say about the outfielder during previous stints in the majors. He also fine-tuned his stance and actually stuck to it and performed at a high level in his limited run before departing.
Then he goes to the WBC and gets next to no playing time, while Tapia simultaneously tears the cover off the ball to the tune of a .317 average and .963 OPS.
It was a perfect storm of really bad luck for Duran. That being said, maybe he was told he’d be starting the season in Worcester and so he felt being in the intense atmosphere of the WBC would be of more value to him than getting at-bats in Fort Myers.
He’ll have an everyday role ready for him to start the season, so perhaps “winning” a roster spot wasn’t in the cards or in his best interest.
I admittedly could be giving all parties involved too much credit and also overthinking the situation, but it makes sense.
Starting Pitchers (6)
Kutter Crawford, Corey Kluber, Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, Chris Sale (L), Josh Winckowski*
*bullpen
This section will be less fun because manager Alex Cora has already announced the rotation. In fact, he announced it while I was typing this projection out.
That said, there’s been a lot of debate about Houck sliding in as the team’s pseudo-No. 3 starter. However, I feel like there’s no debate.
Sure, you could maybe make the case that Crawford has done more to earn a turn first. However, we’re really splitting hairs at this point.
Houck has started at every level in his baseball career and has done so successfully. Yes, that includes the MLB level.
There’s a real debate about whether he’ll stick in the rotation long-term. That said, he has elite stuff, especially his slider, and the Red Sox should be looking to find as many innings for him as possible considering the injuries already affecting the roster.
Winckowski re-joins the Opening Day roster projection because, first, Cora said so and I can’t argue with the manager. Second, because Whitlock –– Brayan Bello and James Paxton –– will not be a full-go as a starter, therefore may open the season on the IL.
Relief Pitchers (7)
Richard Bleier (L), Ryan Brasier, Kenley Jansen, Zack Kelly, Chris Martin, Bryan Mata, and John Schreiber
So this is a somewhat fascinating situation the Red Sox find themselves in here. Given the construction of the 40-man roster, they weren’t equipped with any lefty relievers should something happen to Rodriguez or Bleier.
Well, something happened, and Rodriguez could be out for a while with a Grade 2 oblique strain.
That said, I am not projecting Boston puts Chris Murphy or Brandon Walter in its Opening Day bullpen. In fact, I’m also not projecting the addition to the 40-man for Oddanier Mosqueda, Ryan Sherriff or Matt Dermody.
Thanks to injuries, guys that seemed destined to lose their roster spot have become more important. Also, because of the three-batter minimum, there’s less of a need for a guy in the bullpen that is exclusively productive against lefties, so the platoon advantage gained isn’t as significant as in years past.
As a result, Kelly makes his debut on my roster projections.
Before Spring Training even began, Kelly was a lock to make the team for me. However, the emergence of Mills and Kelly’s early struggles saw them switch places.
Kelly has since registered five straight scoreless outings. There’s still been traffic on the bases against him –– 1.33 WHIP in his scoreless outings streak –– but putting up zeroes in a low-leverage role has value.
Oh yeah, and I also have this dude named Mata making the team.
The Red Sox’s top pitching prospect pitched seven scoreless innings as a reliever in big-league camp this spring and Cora said that he will be a part of what they try to accomplish at some point.
They already had to option him to Triple-A when they reassigned him to minor league camp, so it’s no big deal if they have to do it again when other relievers start to get healthy.
Mata has explosive stuff and is fearless on the mound, attacking hitters to the tune of a 73.5% strike percentage across his four outings.
He would have to work himself into a higher-leverage role at first. However, Mata has the kind of stuff to thrive in a big-league bullpen and I believe he will get an opportunity to, starting on Opening Day.
40-Man Casualties
Joely Rodriguez (60-Day IL, Tapia)
Quick note: In 2.0, I listed Hamilton as a 40-man roster casualty. Admittedly, that was an error on my part as I had Mills listed as someone the team needed to add to the 40-man roster.
That is not true and I apologize for making that error two weeks in a row.
The Rodriguez 60-Day distinction is simply out of being over-precautious. I just believe the Red Sox can, and should, take it slow with that strain.
Also, by doing so, they don’t have to designate anybody else for assignment when they already have a few injuries to key players.
So yes, right-hander Kaleb Ort survives the roster crunch after being a 40-man casualty in my 1.0 and 2.0 roster projections.
It has nothing to do with anything Ort has done in camp, because he’s struggled mightily, but more to do with the fact he has options and the pitching depth has already taken a slight hit due to injuries.
Ort stays on as an “in case of emergency” situation.
Despite the Red Sox exercising one of Dalbec’s options, keeping him on the 40-man, it’s probably best for both parties to split up. They will always have Aug. 2021 to look back on and smile but the fact of the matter is Dalbec hasn’t been very good for most of his Red Sox career.
He’s been very Jekyll & Hyde in camp, slashing .235/.304/.508. On the surface, that looks really solid, and I’m sure the Red Sox would take that from Dalbec. However, that’s with him getting consistent at-bats and against guys that are not necessarily all MLB-caliber.
With the injury Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins sustained in Thursday’s Spring Training game, it at least opens the door to a possible platoon opportunity for Dalbec.
He’d get to go play for the man who drafted him in Dave Dombrowski, stay in a competitive organization and get back around Kyle Schwarber, whose presence in 2021 undoubtedly had a positive impact on the young infielder’s career.
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