Leandre: Projected Boston Red Sox Opening Day roster 2.0
Opening Day is two weeks away. How much has the projected roster for the Boston Red Sox changed since my first installment?
The Boston Red Sox are no longer “undefeated” in 2023 Spring Training. Following their 9-1 win over the Tampa Bay Rays Wednesday, the Red Sox are 10-5-4 in Grapefruit League play.
With two weeks to go before Opening Day at Fenway Park against the Baltimore Orioles, who will be part of the 26-man roster?
For those who missed my first roster projection, click here.
*Bold indicates new addition*
Catchers (2)
Jorge Alfaro and Reese McGuire (L)
No changes at the catcher position this week. With Alfaro’s departure for the World Baseball Classic (WBC), where he’s 3-for-12 with a .667 OPS, the door opened for Caleb Hamilton to potentially make some headway.
However, Hamilton has only five hitless at-bats since my last projected roster.
Overall, he’s still slashing .364/.500/.727 this spring, but he hasn’t gotten a true opportunity to usurp Alfaro as the team’s catcher alongside McGuire.
The only lock for the big-league club, the 28-year-old McGuire, hasn’t budged in camp either. He’s got an .860 OPS and seven runs batted in in 20 at-bats.
Infielders (6)
Christian Arroyo, Triston Casas (L), Yu Chang, Rafael Devers (L), Kiké Hernández, Justin Turner*
* serving as the team’s primary designated hitter
No real surprises here, except that Chang takes back his roster spot –– last week I had Dalbec.
It’s a rare case where the usurped player –– Dalbec –– didn’t do anything to facilitate his demotion. Chang just flashed in a big way during Pool Play in the WBC, where he took home MVP honors for Pool A.
While the Red Sox gave Dalbec opportunities at shortstop, Chang came up through the Cleveland minor-league system primarily at the position. That, coupled with Dalbec having MiLB options, makes this decision more likely.
That said, Dalbec has looked good in camp, with six extra-base hits and an OPS over 1.000.
Outfielders (5)
Adam Duvall, Rob Refsnyder, Raimel Tapia (L), Alex Verdugo (L), Masataka Yoshida (L)
Not to begrudge Duran for opting to play in the WBC for Team Mexico, but I wonder if he’d rethink his decision with the benefit of hindsight.
In pool play, he has just four hitless at-bats, while his replacement (in my projections) has only built on his hot start.
Tapia is in the midst of a six-game hitting streak –– four of which have come since my last projection. During his streak, he’s 7-for-16 with two home runs, two doubles, two stolen bases and five runs batted in.
It’s just been a perfect storm of bad luck for Duran, who looked really strong to start camp: opted for the WBC over MLB camp, isn’t getting much playing time there and Tapia is tearing the cover off of the ball.
That said, Worcester offers consistent playing time to Duran so it might work out better this way for all parties involved.
Starting Pitchers (6)
Kutter Crawford, Corey Kluber, Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, Chris Sale (L), Garrett Whitlock
Whitlock made his Spring Training debut on Wednesday, striking out three in two scoreless innings of relief.
The timing of his return to game action makes the decision to include him rather challenging. However, my guess is he makes one more relief appearance and then starts one of the final games of the Grapefruit League season.
As for what that means for his pitch count, it’s reasonable to presume he’ll be in the ballpark of 65 pitches come Opening Day. That’s where Crawford comes in –– the bulk guy.
There’s no pressure to get Whitlock ready to log six innings from jump street. If he can only get through three or four, Crawford can bridge the gap to the middle relievers.
Josh Winckowski, who made the cut in last week’s projection, hasn’t pitched since March 4. Despite his strong start to the spring, it seems unlikely he’ll make the Opening Day roster now that Whitlock is throwing in games.
Relief Pitchers (7)
Richard Bleier (L), Ryan Brasier, Kenley Jansen, Wyatt Mills, Chris Martin, Joely Rodriguez (L) and John Schreiber
No changes to the bullpen. Everybody is healthy and, with the exception of a bad second outing for Rodriguez, there’s been nothing really noteworthy out of the Red Sox bullpen.
40-Man Casualties (2)
David Hamilton (Alfaro), Bobby Dalbec (Tapia) and Kaleb Ort (Mills)
The Hamilton decision is a tough one for me personally. I thought he’d played admirably in Spring Training, particularly of late.
I didn’t anticipate him being on the MLB roster, but his .292 average with a .370 on-base percentage and five stolen bases was eye-opening.
It ultimately came down to deciding between putting Adalberto Mondesi on the 60-day IL or designating two pitchers for assignment if not Hamilton.
I chose Hamilton because I don’t think Boston wants to delay the return of the uber-athletic middle infielder, nor do I think they want to DFA someone like Zack Kelly.
Also, Hamilton’s ceiling isn’t all that high. He’s a contact hitter that can absolutely fly, but he’s never played above Double-A.
While he could get claimed, I think he’s somebody that Boston feels comfortable it could sneak through waivers.
Lastly, with Chang cracking the roster, the organization would be faced with a massive decision to make regarding Dalbec. Basically two seasons as the everyday first baseman but took a major step back in Year 2.
Ultimately, I think the Red Sox trade Dalbec for a non-40-man reliever.
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Mills is already on the 40 man. He took Hosmers spot
Great take. Agree with everything but the Hamilton DFA.
The Sox lack middle infield depth, and with Hamilton’s base stealing ability, someone will claim him.
Plus, Chang may well be DFA’ed when
Mondesi is ready.
To clear the roster spot, I think they’re going to trade Dalbec or Duran.