Leandre: Mocking trades to bolster roster for Boston Red Sox
As is the case every offseason, the Boston Red Sox could look to the trade market to improve the MLB roster.
The trade market is something exceptionally fascinating and difficult to predict.
Players who seem like obvious trade pieces during the offseason sometimes stay put, and players who seem like potential franchise cornerstones get moved out of the blue.
This winter’s trade market promises to be worth monitoring, especially when ESPN’s Buster Olney says something like, “Yes, 100% [Juan Soto’s] going to get traded before the season.” Even if that 100%, somehow, doesn’t happen, the situation alone is worth monitoring as teams like the Boston Red Sox construct their 2024 rosters.
But it’s more than just the Padres’ Soto out there for the taking, as reportedly every player is on the table in Milwaukee and, out of Boston’s camp, the team is receiving calls on expiring right fielder Alex Verdugo.
That’s just to name a few — there are endless possibilities for teams to dramatically alter their World Series odds. Thus, making it fun for people (like me) to play General Manager and try to orchestrate mock trades based on what the Red Sox need.
For that, let’s get trade-happy.
Trade 1: Addressing Platoon Problem
Red Sox get: 2B Tommy Edman — 13.4 surplus value on Baseball Trade Values
Cardinals get: LHP Shane Drohan (Red Sox's No. 13 prospect on Sox Prospects), 2B Chase Meidroth (No. 16) and SS Mikey Romero (No. 18) — 13.2
Save for a trade to acquire a big fish, the Red Sox should hang on to basically anybody in their top 10 prospects, especially in a trade for Edman.
I’ve seen Edman as a Red Sox trade target dating back to this past summer’s trade deadline because the Cardinals have a surplus of middle infield-type players between Edman, Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan.
The switch-hitting middle infielder had a down year in 2023, posting career lows in batting average (.248) and on-base percentage (.307). While the 28-year-old slashed .268/.320/.426 over his final 49 games, he was unable to overcome a slow start and injury battle.
Even still, he posted 2.3 fWAR, which would’ve ranked third among Red Sox position players in 2023. Moreover, he posted three defensive runs saved and nine outs above average across four positions.
Who Says No?
I think this is a fair deal, and so does BTV, but the Cardinals would be the ones to say no.
How I view this package is that of a quantity over quality one for St. Louis. While, individually, there’s much to like about each one of Boston’s prospects coming back, there’s also some red flags.
For example, Romero battled injuries in 2023 and struggled in his 34 games this season.
Drohan became a Cinderella Man this year, dominating in Double-A Portland. However, the slipper stopped fitting in Worcester and he posted an ERA of 6.47 in 89 innings.
Meidroth, in all likelihood, is the catch of this deal for the Cards. Which is fine, as he’s at worst an OBP machine (.413 in first 133 professional games), but he doesn’t offer much pop and rates out pretty average defensively and in the speed department, per FanGraphs’ grading tool.
While St. Louis could stand to benefit from adding several prospects as opposed to just one, I think they view the final two years of Edman as more valuable.
Trade 2: Adding an Ace to the Five-Card Deck
Red Sox get: RHP Corbin Burnes and OF Tyrone Taylor — 39.5
Brewers get: Drohan, RHP Tanner Houck, 2B Nick Yorke (No. 6) and 1B Blaze Jordan (No. 22) — 44.8
On the surface, this seems rather light for a trade package to acquire the 2021 NL Cy Young winner — and perhaps it is.
However, the soon-to-be free-agent right-hander regressed with gusto in 2023. While still having an exceptional season, his peripherals dipped to a 3.81 FIP, a 3.80 xFIP and a 4.02 SIERA.
He also struck out hitters 5% less frequently, walked them 2% more frequently and lost roughly one mph on his average fastball.
The Red Sox are trading for a Burnes with one year of control coming off his worst season as a full-time starter and Taylor doesn’t provide much more value to the table to offset the regression.
That said, Taylor is intriguing. Between 2021 and 2022, he posted 3.4 fWAR with 29 home runs in 213 games.
But he’s not a high BABIP guy and, despite not striking out an ungodly amount, has seen his walk rate drop by 2% each of the past two seasons.
I like him and he has team control through 2026, but there’s enough of a red flag on the 29-year-old to keep him from being an exceptionally valuable asset.
Who says no?
Based on the model from BTV, the Red Sox are considered to be slightly overpaying in this deal. That said, I think this is the ballpark for what a package for those two players would look like.
To answer the question though, the Brewers likely say no.
The reason is that Houck’s value may not carry as much weight as it did around the 2021 season. We’ve seen two seasons in a row now of Houck struggling as a starting pitcher, with one of them involving him having back surgery.
He still has great stuff and the Brewers are very proficient in getting the most out of their starting pitching, but Houck is already 27 and still doesn’t have certainty about his fit as a starter or reliever.
I think if the Red Sox swapped out Houck for RHP Kutter Crawford, the Brewers are likelier to say yes. Crawford has more control and had an ERA nearly a run better than Houck’s in 23.1 more innings.
Trade 3: Swapping End of 40-Man Guys
Red Sox get: OF Kyle Lewis — -1.6
Diamondbacks get: UTIL Bobby Dalbec — 0.0
This trade can be chalked up as sort of a “whatever” trade, but moves like this can sometimes pay dividends down the road.
For Lewis, this trade would put him on his third team in roughly a calendar year but, unfortunately for him, injuries have taken him out of the future plans of potentially two organizations.
The former AL Rookie of the Year slashed .371/.457/.641 with 17 home runs in 63 games in the Pacific Coast League last season (Triple-A) but posted just a .459 OPS in 16 big-league games. In his last two seasons in MLB, he has -0.8 fWAR and just four homers in 34 games.
As for Dalbec, he did everything last year to earn an MLB opportunity before the end of the season — .938 OPS with 33 home runs in Triple-A. However, every position he played was blocked at the MLB level by either an established player or a thriving rookie (Triston Casas).
A change of scenery seems wildly overdue for Dalbec, who’s flashed brilliance at times in MLB but the swing-and-miss haunts him for lengthy stretches at times. Couple that with being a corner infielder by trade and it’s been hard for the 28-year-old to stick.
Who says no?
Weirdly enough, I’d say the Red Sox do.
Dalbec definitely could benefit from a change of scenery, and I think the Red Sox should afford him that opportunity, but the injury issues Lewis has had really does a number on any potential upside Boston could see in acquiring him.
Moreover, Dalbec has an option left, which will be good for the duration of 2024. Given his ability to play a few positions — first base, third base and right field, not to mention the DH spot — he’s essentially a lock to be one of the first guys called up should the team see an injury at one of those spots.
If the Red Sox traded Dalbec, I see it as more likely for a Florida Complex League pitcher with an MLB ETA of 2028 or later, not someone whose service time clock is already ticking.
The deal makes sense for both parties, as the D-backs finished 2023 with an outfielder surplus. While Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham are free agents, I do question if GM Mike Hazen views Lewis as a true contingency plan if one, or both, departs.
Honorable Mention Trade: The Pipe Dream
Red Sox get: SS Carlos Correa, LHP Caleb Thielbar — -44.8
Twins get: OF Alex Verdugo, C Nathan Hickey (No. 19) and cash considerations — 6.7
I talked myself into this as a possibility last week and, as delusional as my line of thinking may be, it’s as logical a delusion as one can get.
Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow has mentioned many characteristics for what he’s looking for not only as it pertains to building for 2024, but perhaps a precursor for what he’ll look for in players years from now.
Right-handed hitter to offset some platoon asymmetry
Power
Middle infield defense
Someone who has performed when the lights are bright and knows how to handle that pressure
Someone who understands the importance of winning in a big market
I defy you to point me towards which of those boxes Correa does not check.
He also has played alongside Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who was the bench coach with the Houston Astros in 2017, so there’s some semblance of a rapport between the two.
Mix that with the Minnesota Twins’ reported desire to cut payroll this winter and it’s a potential match made in heaven.
This isn’t a foolproof theory, of course. The optics of trading a high-priced free agent signing one year into a deal could be negative, though Correa agreed to sign with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets before both teams balked at his physical.
The Twins were his third choice among teams (he tried) signing with.
Who says no?
I think the Twins do because they’d be dealing Correa at an all-time low in value.
While the model on BTV rejects the trade as a monumental overpay by Boston, the Twins need to consider the fact that the red flags that forced two teams to balk at signing the shortstop didn’t go away and, following a season with a 96 wRC+ and career-low 1.1 fWAR, they may be smart to hold off on trading him for another year.
Not only that, but they do have other relatively large contracts they could move. For example, Byron Buxton is slated to make roughly $14 million a year for the better part of the next decade. Perhaps they could move him in an effort to curb spending.
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I like the Corbin Burnes idea the most. A strong #1 SP is the Sox priority thia winter, hands down!