If not Casas, who plays 1B for Red Sox in 2025?
The Boston Red Sox have reportedly shown a willingness to include 24-year-old first baseman Triston Casas in trade talks this winter.
According to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, the Boston Red Sox have been open to using first baseman Triston Casas as a trade chip in their pursuit of starting pitching this winter.
Speier went on to say the likelihood of a deal was “limited,” though the very idea caught the ire of many fans.
Without casting judgment on a potential deal before it happens, it’s worth noting that not all players reach their fullest potential; most don’t, especially in a game as analytically influenced yet random as baseball. While well-liked by fans for his personality and majestic home runs, Casas is still a wild card as he’s yet to play two full seasons in Major League Baseball.
While nationally it seems consensus to expect Casas to threaten 30 homers in 2025, that doesn’t mean he will. Trading him, while not appearing in the team’s best interest, doesn’t necessarily mean it isn’t.
Regardless, in the event the Red Sox make a trade involving the 2018 first-round pick, they have to find a way to replace that production somehow. It’s just a matter of figuring out who.
Free Agents
Christian Walker
Walker spent the last six full seasons with the Arizona Diamondbacks, posting at least 3.0 fWAR in four of them. While not the most eye-popping numbers, just a 113 wRC+ since 2019, he’s still been super productive for the Snakes during his tenure.
Since 2022, Walker’s averaged 32 home runs and 94 runs batted in per 150 games to couple an .813 OPS and 120 wRC+. During that span, he’s got the seventh-best barrel rate among first basemen in the league.
First base isn’t a high-value position, particularly on defense, but it shouldn’t be discounted that Walker is the cream of the crop, racking up 58 outs above average since fully breaking out in the desert.
Defensively, Walker could be a major influence in returning the Red Sox to at least passable on the infield. Offensively, he provides some right-handed thump Boston officially lost Saturday when outfielder Tyler O’Neill signed a three-year contract with the Baltimore Orioles.
The caveat, however, is Walker’s age (34 in March). In recent years, we’ve seen Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Jose Abreu, Yuli Gurriel and Paul Goldschmidt show heavy signs of regression at or around this age. Seeing as Walker is likely getting a four- or five-year deal, that could impede the Red Sox from being heavy players even if they moved Casas.
Pete Alonso
The 2024 campaign for Alonso is considered a down year for him for good reason.
That said, he still managed 34 home runs and drove in 88 for the National League runner-up New York Mets.
To go with the power, Alonso isn’t a heavy strikeout guy despite regressing to a near one-in-four plate appearance per strikeout ratio in 2024. Historically, he’s around 23 percent, but from 2021 to 2023 he managed to stay under a 23% strikeout rate whilst challenging the 40 and 100 club.
The allure of Alonso is easy to see. He’s got an infectious personality and a lot of majestic home runs to his credit. While defensively he’s probably worse than Casas at this juncture, he has a legitimate track record of sustained durability and production at the MLB level.
He also just turned 30, so there’s reason to believe his worst days are further away than Walker’s.
Carlos Santana (S)
A personal favorite, but even at age 38 (39 in April), Santana remains a top first baseman in this game.
As mentioned before, many prolific, All-Star caliber first basemen regressed heavily in their mid-30s in recent years. Santana is no exception but has rebounded the past three years to the tune of 65 home runs, 217 runs batted in and 5.4 fWAR for five combined teams.
Last year in Minnesota, he won the Gold Glove at first base while posting his best wRC+ since 2019.
It’s a scary age for an everyday player, but Santana as a one- or two-year stopgap could be very beneficial for the Red Sox. Not just on the field, but in the clubhouse as well.
But again, at 39 years old, he could truly hit a wall and never rebound out of the blue with no warning signs.
Paul Goldschmidt
Speaking of one-year stopgaps, how about the 2022 National League MVP?
There are many reasons to steer clear of the 37-year-old, but it should be stated that he posted a 120 wRC+ with 29 extra-base hits in the second half last season.
He’s very much not the same guy from two seasons ago, but can he be effective playing in front of the Green Monster 81 times in 2025? It’s possible.
Last year, he pulled 23.6% of his fly balls, which was middle-of-the-pack among first basemen who hit at least 100 fly balls. On those fly balls, he posted a 211 wRC+, which was third to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper.
At 37, it’s hard to imagine him overhauling his swing, but if he can sell out more to the pull side, perhaps Goldschmidt can stave off the regression bug for a year.
Trade Targets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The stage is set for Guerrero to come to Boston in free agency next year. But if the Red Sox plan to move Casas, why not be doubly bold and swing a separate deal for the legacy kid?
Last year, Guerrero returned to his MVP-caliber form, posting a 165 wRC+ and 30 home runs in 159 games.
It’s crazy to think just this time last year, people were talking about how the now-25-year-old hadn’t truly met expectations and now he’s potentially staring at a historic-level extension/free-agent contract for a first baseman one season from now.
It’s hard to imagine what the acquisition cost would look like for the rental, who turns 26 in March, but given what the New York Yankees gave up for outfielder Juan Soto last year, it’s hard to imagine it’s not too much cheaper than that — especially considering Toronto would be trading him within the division.
For reference, here are Soto’s 2023 and Guerrero’s 2024 side-by-side:
Honestly, this is one of the few trade packages Casas would make sense to be in. However, it would be counterproductive considering the idea of trading the lefty slugger would be to address pitching.
Maybe Boston could poach a starter from Toronto in this package, but it’s hard to imagine this trade not hurting the health of the farm system.
Yandy Díaz
Díaz regressed heavily in 2024 but still rounded out with a solid campaign for Tampa Bay.
His entire triple-slash regressed, but he remained roughly a two-win player while slightly underperforming his expected slugging and expected wOBA.
Díaz is a fine player, making just $8 million against the tax in 2025 with a club option for $12 million in 2026 is a good budget-baller option for the Red Sox while they develop another first baseman, or wait out Guerrero’s free agency or something of the like.
Tampa Bay is always open for business on its higher-salary players, so it’s hard to imagine the 33-year-old is off-limits.
Internal
Romy Gonzalez
Gonzalez had his best season in MLB last year, slashing .266/.306/.417 with a 97 wRC+ in 89 games for the Red Sox.
While mostly in a platooning role, the speedster provided the team with three defensive runs saved and one out above average in 93 defensive innings at first base in 2024.
He also showcased some serious thump and a knack for stealing bases, two things the Red Sox will need even more of in 2025 if they hope to improve upon an 81-81 season.
Connor Wong
Hard to imagine the Red Sox would let guys like Kyle Higashioka, Travis d’Arnaud, Danny Jansen and Gary Sánchez sign elsewhere in free agency if they wanted to move Wong off of catcher. However, the metrics would back up that decision should it get to that point.
Wong had his breakout season with the bat in 2024, slashing .280/.333/.425 with 13 home runs and 52 driven in across 126 games. That said, his defense took a step back, as he ranked in the third percentile for blocking and the ninth percentile for framing. His control of the running game dropped as well from the 92nd percentile to the 58th.
Wong got 14 appearances at first base last season but posted -2 DRS and -4 OAA in 64.2 innings.
Rafael Devers
Should it come to this, there’s been a lot of discourse about moving Devers to first base this winter.
The longest-tenured Red Sox remains adamant that he wants to stay at third base and is anticipating returning there this upcoming season, but should the team bring in someone like Nolan Arenado or Alex Bregman, it’s hard to imagine that being at a different position.
The metrics don’t like Devers at third and, aside from 2019, never have. That being said, how often do you watch a Red Sox game and say to yourself the reason they lost is because of Devers’ defense? Maybe once or twice?
Mickey Gasper
The Red Sox liked Gasper enough to leave him on the 40-man roster when it was time to protect prospects from the Rule 5 Draft.
Despite his limited run at the MLB level last year, there’s reason for the liking.
Across Double- and Triple-A, Gasper slashed .328/.439/.531 in 92 games and did reach base five times despite his 0-for-18 in MLB, including a clutch walk against the Texas Rangers in his MLB debut.
At 5-foot-10, he’s undersized for a traditional first baseman, but it’s hard to envision him catching much or playing second over someone like Vaughn Grissom or top infield prospect Kristian Campbell.
Enmanuel Valdez
Gasper is undersized at 5-foot-10, which makes Valdez even more undersized at 5-foot-8.
That said, Valdez at least possesses the power you’d like your first baseman to have at a bare minimum.
It wasn’t a good 2024 for Valdez, who made the Opening Day roster for the first time in his career. But after starting the season 4-for-37, he slashed a respectable .238/.298/.402 across his final 182 plate appearances. From April 13 to Sept. 6, he slashed .259/.321/.448 across 160 plate appearances.
Valdez has just three games played at first base since coming over to the Red Sox in 2022, but perhaps that’s a way for him to fight onto the MLB roster again in 2025. If the team likes his bat, which has shown flashes, it’s not a horrible idea despite him being undersized. Especially if paired with someone like the aforementioned Gonzalez in a platooning role.
Valdez versus RHP in MLB: .255/.301/.442, 99 wRC+ and 12 home runs
Gonzalez versus LHP in MLB: .283/.322/.480, 119 wRC+ and eight home runs
I think it’s a mistake to trade Casas at this point. Unless the return is an ACE SP. my only concern with Casas is that he is a lefty hitter and Fenway is not kind to lefties. Look at how many HRs Teddy Ballgame lost during his career.