How the Red Sox can become contenders in 2024
The Red Sox have finished in last place in the AL East three times in the last four seasons. In those four years, they have built up the farm system and have many young guys with many years of control. They locked up Rafael Devers long term, and it seems like they are going to build a team around him. With many fans wishing for baseball in October, the Red Sox have the money and pieces to build a contending roster.
But how can they do that? What moves are required to fill the needs of the team? In this analysis, I will dive deep into which pieces the Red Sox need to address, players and prospects they should trade, and the free agents they should sign.
Step #1: Address the outfield
The Red Sox have many options in the outfield. Perhaps too many. They have players like Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Alex Verdugo, and Masataka Yoshida. Many of those players are decent options, not to mention the depth coming up in the minor leagues like Roman Anthony.
Although this is one of the better problems to have, this is a good opportunity to move one of them. For the sake of this hypothetical, I will establish my outfield like this:
RF: Wilyer Abreu
CF: Ceddanne Rafaela
LF: Masataka Yoshida*
*For now
This means you can sell high on Duran and trade Verdugo, who has one year before hitting free-agency. Duran slashed .295/.346/.482, stole 24 bases, and is known for his speed. He was worth almost nothing after an abysmal 2022 season. The Red Sox should sell high and get something of value for him. As for Verdugo, he slashed .264/.324/.421 and finished as a Gold-Glove finalist this past season. A team would be getting a solid outfielder and could net a decent return if he was packaged with someone else.
Step #2: Trade for Juan Soto and Triston McKenzie
Using the players mentioned above and some other pieces, the Red Sox have the potential to net both Juan Soto from the Padres and Triston McKenzie from the Guardians.
There is no doubt: Soto is a generational talent. He slashed .275/.410/.519 in all 162 games this season and hit 35 HRs. Multiple reports early this offseason have predicted that Soto will get traded since San Diego wants to shed payroll. However, they want to stay competitive in 2024. This is where the trade package comes in. Here is my proposed trade package for Soto:
BOS Receives: Juan Soto
SD Receives: Alex Verdugo, Tanner Houck, and Nick Yorke (#6 prospect per MLB Pipeline)
Obviously, this is a hypothetical, and the Padres could want more or settle for a better package from another team. I believe this has the potential to get the job done. As mentioned, Soto hits free-agency after 2024, and the Padres would like someone to pay for his whole contract, which could reach $30 million this season.
As for the players San Diego receives, since they want to still be competitive, Verdugo is an everyday outfielder who showed many flashes with the Red Sox this past season. It is clear that he needs a change of scenery for his final year before he hits the open market. San Diego could be a very good spot for him.
Houck is still developing and has upside as a starter. But the Red Sox may not envision him being a part of their rotation in 2024, and if that is the case, a team like the Padres could value his upside and install him in their rotation. Even though Houck had an ERA over 5 this past season, he is still developing and working on developing a third pitch. Not to mention, a team like the Padres could use more pitching and would improve their pitching staff as a whole no matter where he is placed.
And Yorke is a solid prospect who slashed .268/.350/.435 in Double-A Portland this season. He is likely to start the year in Triple-A, and could be a very intriguing player in the future. Overall, San Diego would be improving its team as a whole, while the Red Sox would be getting a generational talent like Soto. Even though he is likely to hit free-agency, his presence would impact an already bat-first lineup.
This trade may seem like a fleece for the Red Sox, but the reality is that many teams are going to be very reluctant to trade away any top prospects. This is because Soto is a free-agent after 2024 and is expected to land around $30 million in arbitration.
Triston McKenzie is coming off an injured season after a stellar 2022 campaign. In 2022, he posted an ERA of 2.96 in 30 starts and 191.1 IP. He was emerging as an ace even with Shane Bieber as a teammate. He would be a really solid arm for the Red Sox and could lead the rotation. Here is the trade proposal:
BOS Receives: Triston McKenzie
CLE Receives: Jarren Duran
This trade could be a win-win for both sides. The Guardians are known as a pitching “lab,” and keep developing great pitchers over the years. They have struggled with developing position players, and Duran could be a piece they continue to develop. The Red Sox have the opposite problem, and this trade can solve problems for both teams.
Step #3: Sign Free Agent starting pitchers Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jordan Montgomery
The Red Sox need multiple starters to hold down the rotation that has many holes. What better way to do it than to sign two of the best starters on the free-agent market.
Yamamoto is no doubt the hottest free-agent pitcher who won the Eiji Sawamura Award (Japan’s equivalent to the MLB Cy Young) three times in a row. He posted an ERA below 2 in his three seasons in the NPB. Since he is only 25, the idea of a long-term contract seems to be less risky as any other free-agent starter on the market. I think he will cost around $250 million and have 8-10 years. Especially with Chris Sale coming off the books after 2024, the Red Sox have the ability to spend that money.
And there is the million dollar question: how much of Yamamoto’s production dominance will translate to the major league level? Even with that question in mind, he does have the potential to be an ace of a team’s rotation. In my opinion, the risk is worth the reward, and in this market, teams have to pay that type of premium for pitching. To win the Yamamoto sweepstakes would be a huge victory for the Boston Red Sox organization as a whole.
Any team, especially the Red Sox, can never have too much pitching. The addition of Jordan Montgomery will clearly boost their starting rotation, one where they have lacked solid depth throughout. Montgomery posted an ERA of 3.20 in 2023 with both the Cardinals and Rangers, and dominated in the playoffs. A deal for a player like him could cost around $150 million over six years. That’s a $25 million average annual value. While this seems like it is a hefty cost for a pitcher who is in their 30s, that is the reality of this market.
Step #4: Sign Free Agent infielder Elvis Andrus to play second base
Yes, this may seem crazy, but let me explain. Andrus has developed to a glove-first infielder with occasional pop. Andrus has played in 110 or more games since 2019 (not counting 2020), which would give the Red Sox an everyday second baseman.
Although Andrus is known as a shortstop, he played about 500 innings at second base in 2023. He recorded an OAA (outs above average) of 6 in the infield and ranks in the 90th percentile in range this past season. This addition can help the Red Sox defense that was borderline unwatchable in 2023. Better defense equates to better pitching, which equals to a better product on the field.
Here is what the new Red Sox lineup would look like:
C: Connor Wong
1B: Triston Casas
2B: Elvis Andrus
3B: Rafael Devers
SS: Trevor Story
LF: Juan Soto
CF: Ceddanne Rafaela
RF: Wilyer Abreu
Starters:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Jordan Montgomery
Triston McKenzie
Brayan Bello
Chris Sale
Relievers:
Kenley Jansen
Chris Martin
John Schreiber
Josh Winckowski
Garrett Whitlock
Brennan Bernardino
Nick Pivetta
Kutter Crawford
(Other bullpen options: Mauricio Llovera, Zack Kelly, Bryan Mata, Chris Murphy)
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From what I've read, it seems like Soto is all but certain to test free agency. May not be a bad package for a year's worth, but no more. Rest of the deals look ok.