Exploring a potential Triston Casas trade
Early last month The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote a column that got Red Sox fans’ attention. In the article, he mentioned that the Red Sox could trade their young star first baseman Triston Casas in an effort to balance their heavily left-handed lineup. Many, including myself, quickly dismissed the idea, but after a few weeks of sitting with it and many more articles by local reporters discussing it I don’t feel quite as dismissive as I did before. The Red Sox are widely expected to trade from their surplus of left-handed hitters, and with first base being low on the defensive spectrum, the Red Sox could theoretically replace Casas in the lineup with a wider variety of players. With Red Sox Twitter set ablaze by the notion yet again yesterday, now feels like a good time to look at some of the possibilities a Casas trade could open up, starting with some of the teams that could be suitors for Casas’s services.
Teams:
Seattle Mariners
Let’s start with everyone’s favorite potential Red Sox trade partner, the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners’ impressive group of young starting pitchers is the envy of the league, and for good reason. The Mariners allowed the fewest runs in the league in 2024 at just 607 and had the lowest starting pitcher ERA at a minuscule 3.38. Seattle struggled all year to score runs, however, and missed the playoffs entirely as a result. They desperately need a middle-of-the-order bat like Casas. Easy match, right? Well, not so fast. Mariners President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto has publicly stated that his team has no desire to trade any of their starting pitchers, denoting it “Plan Z.” Time will only tell if Dipoto is being truthful or just posturing, as he’s been known to make big, bold trades before. The Mariners are a fit for a Casas trade on paper, just maybe not in reality unless Dipoto runs out of letters in the alphabet.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are in a state of transition. Old friend Chaim Bloom is set to take over as President of Baseball Operations starting in 2026, and has been tasked with rebuilding the franchise’s player development system in the meantime. As part of the transition, the Cards have announced a plan to reduce payroll, instead diverting funds to revamping their development program. They have not, however, indicated a desire to enter a full rebuild. Trading for Casas would give the Cards a cost-controlled middle-of-the-order bat to replace impending free agent Paul Goldschmidt, who they are expected to part ways with. The Cardinals have an array of players the Red Sox could find interesting, including but not limited to Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Ryan Helsley, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and Jordan Walker. Though none of these players represent the young ace building block the Red Sox covet this offseason, they do represent a one-stop shop for a lot of players that could fill various needs for the team. With the ability to take on salary and a franchise first baseman to offer, the Red Sox could extract quite a bit of value from the rebuild in St. Louis.
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros are another franchise facing a crossroads. They were bounced from the playoffs before the Championship Series for the first time in 7 years, and their leader Alex Bregman is expected to command a contract they may not be able to afford in free agency. Part of the reason the Astros are in such a hairy financial situation is the failed contract of first baseman Jose Abreu, who was let go from the team just a year and a half into the three-year commitment. Without a viable replacement, the Astros were tied with the Oakland A’s for the least production out of the first base position of any American League team this year at -1.9 WAR. First base will be at the top of their offseason priority list after the Bregman decision is made, and with limited financial flexibility and another big free agent decision looming with outfielder Kyle Tucker, the Astros would surely be interested in an affordable star like Casas. They lacked rotation depth this season due to injury but do have some intriguing arms they could make available with some of those players expected to return.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds went into the 2024 offseason with an abundance of infield depth, and that was before raising eyebrows with the signing of corner infielder Jeimer Candelario to a 3-year $45 million deal. That depth was tested immediately, however, when SS/2B Matt McLain tore his labrum and 3B Noelvi Marte was suspended half the season for PEDs during Spring Training. Their depth was tested further when 1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand broke his wrist a month into the season, undergoing season-ending surgery. Candelario did little to fill in for the missing youngsters, posting just a .225/.279/.429 slash line in his 112 games between first base, third base, and DH.
The Reds played out the string with Ty France seeing most of the playing time at first base and finished the season with the 7th worst production at the position overall at a -0.6 WAR. They were middle of the pack in runs scored despite playing their home games in a hitter-friendly ballpark, and posted a 77 wRC+ from left-handed hitters on the season. Only the White Sox received less production from the left side of the plate. All this makes it reasonable to believe they’ll be after a left-handed slugger this offseason, making Casas an attractive candidate to pursue.
The question is what they could offer back without putting Hunter Greene or Rhett Lowder on the table. Finding a match here would be dependent on what the Red Sox think of mid-twenties starters Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, and Brandon Williamson, each of which has their own performance and/or injury concerns, or their willingness to include top pitching prospects Chase Burns or Chase Petty. Perhaps including one of Marte or Encarnacion-Strand in the deal would make a lesser pitching package more appealing to the Red Sox.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates went quickly from irrelevancy to must-watch television with the emergence of Paul Skenes in 2024. The pressure of relevancy comes with a curse, however, and the Pirates will be heavily scrutinized if they do not maximize their time with the young ace. The Pirates are another team that struggled to score runs, both overall and from the left side, and that received little to no production out of the first base position. Casas could help change all of this at an enticing dollar figure for Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is rich in arms beyond just Skenes, and though I wouldn’t hold your breath for the inclusion of a Jared Jones or Bubba Chandler in a deal for Casas, high minors pitchers Braxton Ashcraft, Thomas Harrington, Mike Burrows, or Anthony Solomento could all be arms for Breslow & Co. to mold. We did, of course, see these two teams match up on a pitcher for position player trade at the deadline, so who knows what kind of groundwork was laid and what other pitchers from the Pirates system Breslow could have had his eyes on.
Minnesota Twins
Saving perhaps the best match for last, the Twins are almost sure to shake things up following their late-season collapse and subsequent dismissal of General Manager Thad Levine. Though it would be wrong to paint this team as being quite as offensively inept as the two priors, they do have a vacancy opening up at first base with the departure of veteran Carlos Santana and room to add more thump at the expense of a starter with MLB experience. The emergence of Simeon Woods-Richardson and David Festa as viable major league options, along with the promising upper minors depth provided by Zebby Matthews, David Raya, Andrew Morris, and C.J. Culpepper, could embolden the Twins to make one of Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, or Joe Ryan available for what would become a core piece of their starting lineup in the coming years. I’m personally particularly fond of Ober and Festa, although I’m sure the Twins are as well.
I’ve outlined six teams here that make sense as suitors for Casas, but it’s important to note that I’m not operating from a position of inside knowledge, and as a result, these destinations and the players mentioned in them are purely speculation. What I do like to think I know is that the Red Sox value Casas highly, and that they wouldn’t sign off on any deal involving him without the return being significant enough for their liking. In other words, assume from this point forward that the Red Sox have made a trade to their liking, and let’s move on to the real nuts and bolts of the article, which is what the Red Sox’s options could be to replace Casas in the lineup.
Option Number 1: Sign or trade for a new first baseman
Pete Alonso
The biggest fish of the free agent first basemen this year is Pete Alonso, who is at this point still playing with the New York Mets on their way to the NLCS. After Pete’s heroics bringing the Mets this far into the playoffs, it’s harder now to imagine him leaving than it was at any other point in this season. Still, if he does make it to free agency, he would become the best first baseman and one of the overall best offensive players on the market. As a right-handed hitter, the Red Sox would certainly consider him in this scenario, but as the most expensive of the first-base options his consideration may only be brief anyway.
Christian Walker
This is one of my personal favorite potential Red Sox targets of the offseason and the one I would be most encouraging them to sign if the Casas trade scenario came to fruition. Walker has been one of the finest defensive first basemen in the league over the last three seasons, taking home the NL’s Gold Glove award at the position in ’22 and ’23. He’ll likely be at least a finalist again in ’24, if not a third-time winner. He’s no slouch with the bat either, with 30+ HR power to the pull side paired with above-average walk rates. He’s a little older than Alonso at 33, but with that age comes more agreeable contract terms, with most expecting closer to an $80 million commitment to be enough to sign him. As a late bloomer with experience fighting for his spot in the league, he has become a respected vocal leader, something else the Red Sox reportedly could be interested in. Walker checks every box on the Red Sox offseason to-do list.
Paul Goldschmidt
Another elder statesman with even a few years on Walker, Paul Goldschmidt has been informed he will not be brought back to St. Louis in 2025. Coming off the worst year in his MLB career, Goldy is only likely to command a one-year deal and thus would represent a stopgap option at first base for the Red Sox. Given his track record as one of the best-hitting first basemen of his generation, I would not count him out to have a rebound season, but even a rebound could mean just modest production. His 120 wRC+ in the second half and 134 overall wRC+ vs LHP are indeed signs of life, and he is another player widely respected across the league for his veteran leadership.
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins represents another reclamation type that would be available via free agency on a one-year deal. His first season back from a torn ACL got off to a hot start but two disastrous months in June and August brought his overall production to exactly league average at the plate with a 100 wRC+. Some team out there is going to chalk that up to Rhys not being built up for a full season of baseball after a significant leg injury that kept him out of the game for over a year. That team could reap the benefits of Rhys’s recovery year and find themselves a productive, lefty-smashing bargain at first base. But if the Red Sox are that team, it could be just another stopgap option, and the potential benefit of taking that route from a Red Sox perspective is who could be available at first base next season.
Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Vladdy Jr. represents the White Whale of all the potential Casas replacements. A quick trip to his page on Baseball Savant will tell you all you need to know about why. He’s just 25 years old and set to enter free agency after the 2025 season. It remains to be seen what the Blue Jays will do with him, but if he were available in trade this offseason the Red Sox should try to be involved, perhaps even with Casas as one of the pieces going the other way. If he makes it all the way to free agency, the Red Sox should be one of the teams in hot pursuit. After a couple of down years by Vladdy standards, Guerrero has reinserted himself into the conversation for best right-handed hitters in the game, surpassed this season only by the two leading AL MVP candidates, Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr., and again at just 25 years old. If the Red Sox wish to add a righty slugger to their emerging core of position players, there is no more nuclear option than this one. It could be wise to be ready to strike at his potential availability.
Option Number 2: Add a third baseman, move Rafael Devers to first base
Alex Bregman
Bregman enters free agency with the Astros coming off their first postseason loss without reaching the ALCS since his first full season in the league. There are many reasons the Red Sox could be interested in Bregman, and going from aiming at the Crawford Boxes in Houston to aiming at the Green Monster in Boston could make for an easy transition.
Bregman is a plus defender, so relocating Devers to either first base or DH would be a no-brainer if the Red Sox were to sign him. Interestingly, Bregman has had three straight seasons of reverse splits, meaning that he has hit right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching despite being a right-handed hitter. For this reason, he may not be as perfect a target as one would initially assume when it comes to “balancing the lineup,” but his defense, pulled fly ball tendency, and clubhouse leadership would all be welcome fits. At 30 years old and likely to command somewhere in the range of $200 million on the open market, this isn’t the route I would go, but a strong relationship with Alex Cora could make the Red Sox players for Bregman nonetheless.
Willy Adames
Though the Red Sox have a surplus of middle infielders, some within the organization are high on shortstop Willy Adames according to a recent report from Chris Cotillo of MassLive. With his strong throwing arm and his 6’1” 215lb build, I’ve long thought he would make a great third baseman. He shares a lot of qualities with Bregman as a strong defender and a right-handed power bat with a reverse split. He’s reaching free agency a year younger than Bregman at just 29 years of age. Bregman is more of a contact hitter who strikes out very little and gets to his power with pulled fly balls. Adames, on the other hand, has more swing-and-miss in his game but displays power to all fields when he connects. One can debate which of these profiles ages more gracefully. Adames is the top free-agent shortstop on the market and will be paid as such regardless of whether he’s willing to switch positions. A comp for an Adames contract could be the 7-year $177 million pact Dansby Swanson signed with the Cubs in 2023. If Adames is paid like a shortstop he may be amenable to a position change, but the Red Sox’s interest will be contingent on Adames’s willingness to make the switch.
Nolan Arenado
With the aforementioned changes taking place in St. Louis, one of the big salaries that could be on the move is third baseman Nolan Arenado. The 33-year-old had a challenging season at the plate in 2024 but maintained his typical premier defense at the hot corner. He has three years remaining on his contract, which is worth about $25 million per year in luxury tax salary but is declining in real dollars over the remaining term, contains deferments, and has pieces still left to be paid by the Colorado Rockies. With the Cardinals looking to shed salary and his recent struggles offensively, the acquisition cost for Arenado shouldn’t be too high.
The Red Sox could be attracted to the shorter commitment they’d have to make to Arenado compared to the above two options. Conversely, though, they may not feel that an offensive turnaround is likely for Arenado during his age 33-36 seasons after two years on the decline. It’s also worth noting that Arenado has a full no-trade clause. Arenado may be a bigger name these days than he is a star player, but his defense gives him a high floor for production, and a change of scenery to a more hitter-friendly park could be worth a gamble for both sides.
Vaughn Grissom/Kristian Campbell
This represents the internal option for replacing Casas and additionally serves to thin out the crowded mix of middle infield talent the Red Sox have accrued. It’s anticipated that these two players will be competing for the job at second base and that the loser of that battle could become expendable. That doesn’t have to be the case if one moves over to third base. It would make the most sense, in my opinion, to move Vaughn Grissom there, since one of the knocks on his defense at second base is that he has an awkward arm angle for the position.
That presumably wouldn’t be as much of an issue on the other side of the diamond. Learning another new position could make things difficult for Grissom and growing pains would be expected, but he wouldn’t be replacing a particularly strong defender in Devers either.
One would hope that a move to first base would help protect Devers from the kind of wear and tear that caused his shoulder to break down at the end of the season and that getting Grissom at-bats at the major league level to help him rebuild his value would be beneficial as well, even if he doesn’t turn out to be the long-term solution at third base. David Hamilton could man second base to start the year until Campbell pushes him for the spot and hopefully becomes the first long-term solution at the position since Dustin Pedroia.
Conclusion
It's important to note coming out of this article that the Red Sox by no means need to trade Triston Casas and that I by no means want Triston Casas gone. The Red Sox should be just as thrilled to sign him to an extension as they would be to trade him for a top starting pitcher, and I would be happy either way. Casas has the potential to be one of the premier middle-of-the-order bats in the league, and as such provides tremendous value to any team that he’s a part of. And that’s the point. Despite the injury potentially depressing his value, the Red Sox should be able to acquire some really impactful talent for him. It’s a compliment to Casas that he’s still thought of in this way despite being unable to play for a large portion of this season.
But the Red Sox have a surplus of left-handed bats, a desire to balance the lineup, and a limited number of positions with which to do so. The free agent market this year (and next with Vladdy potentially in the mix) is particularly rich in right-handed corner infield talent and that’s without even mentioning a couple more potential trade candidates in Yandy Diaz and Eugenio Suarez. The starting pitching market is strong as well, but long free-agent contracts for pitchers in their 30s are always dicey. To me, it’s at least a logical approach to address the right-handed hitting in this way and acquire younger starting pitching using the surplus of hitting talent. It might even be the most prudent approach.
You can always move a player down on the defensive spectrum — i.e., Devers moving from third to first base — but you can’t always move a player up. For this reason, trading from the bottom of the defensive spectrum provides a team with more flexibility in an ever-changing market for players. One could even make the case that the Red Sox should make two of the above moves, making Devers the full-time DH, and having an opening-day outfield of Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Jarren Duran. Adding, say, a Bregman or Adames along with Christian Walker, for example, would make for one heck of a defensive team behind a bolstered pitching staff aided by the trade of Casas.
These are all just thoughts, though, and it’s up to Craig Breslow to decide what’s best for the team. Rest assured; Breslow won’t move Casas if the value isn’t there, and there’s a good chance he opens the season as the starting first baseman for the Boston Red Sox, despite anything one blogger has to say.
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An interesting analysis!