Does he fit for Fenway: Matt Chapman
The first of an off-season series looking at the top free agents and if they fit for the 2024 Red Sox.
Infield defense is at the top of the priority list for the 2024 Boston Red Sox after a disastrous 2023. With a revolving door at shortstop and 2nd base, early year struggles from Triston Casas, and regression from Rafael Devers, there was a lot left to be desired. What better way to improve than by adding a platinum glove level defender, right? Here’s why Chapman may, or may not fit for the Red Sox.
Offensive profile
While the glove is the headlining attribute for Chapman, let’s look at the bat first. When scouting right-handed bats for the Red Sox, one of the first things to look at is the approach. Does it fit with the philosophy? Sort of. Placing in the 94th percentile in chase percentage and 78th percentile in walk percentage, that’s in line with the Red Sox patient approach.
There are two big concerns for Chapman and how his bat would fit in. While the walks and lack of chase are nice, what comes with it are a lot of empty swings, specifically at pitches that are inside the strike zone. His Z-Contact% (Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone) was 78.3%. Among 133 qualified hitters, Chapman ranked 129th in Z-Contact%.=
Above is another visual of Chapman’s value at the plate. In and around the plate he’s a -30 Run Value, but on chase or waste pitches, he’s a +30. That comes out to a net neutral, but doesn’t that still feel negative given the discrepancy of value in competitive pitches?
Here is also a look at Chapman’s spray charts in 2023 and 2022. In most cases, I don’t think spray charts are necessarily indicative of success, but the change in pull vs. an all-fields approach is fascinating. A lot of Chapman’s power went to the opposite field, which as a right-handed hitter would go against the advantages of where he’d hypothetically play 81 games. That looks like a lot of empty flyballs in the deep Fenway right field.
Financials
Looking for his first big payday, Chapman has been predicted by many different publications to ink a deal between $80 million to $150 million. I’d expect his contract to land somewhere in between there, ultimately something like 5 years for $120 million. It would comparatively be a lite version of the Trevor Story contract, while also offering a relatively similar skillset.
Verdict
No, I do not believe Matt Chapman is a fit for Fenway and the 2024 Red Sox. With that said, he would plug a much needed gap in the leaking infield defense. It can’t be said enough how good of a defender Chapman is and what kind of an effect that would have on this team. With that said, in terms of needs, a 3rd baseman isn’t among them.
Rafael Devers is here to stay and I am not interested in moving him to DH just yet. While Devers will never be a Chapman level defender, I do believe with Trevor Story (hopefully) in the line-up every day to his left, the ship should be steadied in terms of his defense. Thanks, Matt Chapman, but no thanks.
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