Could Red Sox pitching prospect Connelly Early be a breakout candidate in 2025?
The Red Sox saw numerous young pitchers within their pitching pipeline make major strides during the 2024 season. Left-handed starter Connelly Early was one of those pitchers that jumped two levels in the system while tossing more than 100 innings last season, the only member of the Red Sox’ 2023 draft class to reach that milestone.
Early split time between High-A Greenville and Double-A Portland, making 23 starts, posting a 3.99 ERA and 3.24 FIP with 138 strikeouts to 39 walks over 103 2/3 innings. The 22-year-old was promoted to Portland in late July, where he made eight starts, posting a 2-3 record while posting a 4.50 ERA and a 2.66 FIP with 48 strikeouts over 36 frames for the Sea Dogs.
According to FanGraphs, Early ranked second in the Eastern League in groundball rate (58.9 percent), sixth in FIP, seventh in swinging-strike rate (16.4 percent), 13th in strikeouts per nine innings (12.0), and 16th in strikeout rate (30.6 percent).
Early struck out 138 batters between Greenville and Portland and operates with a four-pitch mix that consists of a 91-93 mph fastball that tops out at 95-96 mph, an 80-82 mph whiff-inducing changeup, a 79-81 mph curveball, and a cutter-slider hybrid that sits between 87-88 mph.
His changeup is considered his best secondary pitch, which he reintroduced to his arsenal during spring training last year.
“My changeup I actually picked up during spring training,” said Early while on the “To the Show We Go” Baseball Podcast in November. “I had a changeup at UVA that was pretty solid, but it was only really good because I was still able to keep the same arm speed as my fastball, but metrically, it was honestly kind of like a mess. So when I showed up to spring training, the (Red Sox) were like, 'All right, let's fix your changeup.'”
Early was receptive to the idea of reworking his changeup and embraced the coaching and took the pitch into games. A big part of the change to this pitches was changing his grips on how he would throw the ball.
“I was like, ‘OK, I thought that was one of my better pitches here; are we sure that we want to work on that?,” said Early. “I was hammering it like every single bullpen that I had in spring training. I was throwing it.
“Then as soon as I would get into a live outing, it'd be like, all right, you need to throw your changeup a lot so we can get a sample size and then figure out if we need to make a grip adjustment or something like that. But I mean, after I got the hang of it, about like a month into the season, I would say it definitely turned into my best pitch, for sure.”
If Early is going to make a jump up the prospects rankings, he will need to add more velocity to his fastball. The southpaw relies on his depiction with his pitches versus overpowering hitters; his fastball tops out at 93 mph, and it gives right-handed hitters issues.
The Red Sox pitching gurus have been working with Early on increasing his fastball velocity over the last year. A big part of his velocity change has been due to the weight room and nutrition.
“You get into these bullpens, and you're chasing a shape with your pitch,” said Early on MLB.com’s “The Show Before the Show.”
“You're trying to put it in the zone. Then you're just taking that out onto the game and trying to get as much comfortability in that pitch as you can. Then you move on to the next pitch and try and figure out how to do the next one. So that's one big thing that they've done with me.”
According to Synergy, his fastball was sitting between 89.9 mph and is now at 91.4 mph, and his fastball usage dipped, allowing him to use his secondary pitches more off the fastball.
“One of the main models that we use is throwing nasty stuff in the zone,” said Early. “I mean, everybody, everybody trains to hit the fastball, and everybody's off-speed is so unique to that individual person, just based on the arm slot and the metrics that go along with it. So everybody's been training to try and hit higher velocities, higher fastball velocities. Obviously, hitters are trying to adjust to that, and you're just trying to keep them off balance and never give them a chance to get comfortable with that fastball.
“Obviously, you have to use the fastball to keep them honest at the plate. But just mix and match as much as you can and try to keep them off balance because your off-speed pitches are usually going to result in better outcomes for you as a pitcher.”
“It’s been really cool to watch his continued development this year,” Red Sox director of pitching Justin Willard told The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier last month. “He has been the epitome of what we have been pushing as a player development group and has succeeded in reaching every goal we have put in front of him.”
SoxProspects lists Early as the No. 14 prospect in the Red Sox system and the sixth-ranked pitching prospect in the system behind Luis Perales (No. 4), Hunter Dobbins (No. 8), Richard Fitts (No. 9), Payton Tolle (No. 10), and David Sandlin (No. 11).
Early isn’t going to overpower you on the mound, but his ability to mix in other secondary pitches to play off his fastball, will allow him to be a little more deceptive. If he can add a few more ticks to his fastball this offseason and into the spring, Early could quickly crack the top-10 in Red Sox prospect lists across the game.
