Column: 5 hot Red Sox takes for the 2024 season
The Red Sox 2024 season is set to start Thursday, and there are many questions surrounding the team. However, like most teams, many people have different thoughts going into a season. I am tempted to look on the bright side of things and say the Sox are going to exceed expectations. But I am also a realist and like to look at things objectively. With that said, here are 5 of my Red Sox takes for the 2024 season:
Take 1: Cooper Criswell makes 10+ starts by August 1.
The loss of Lucas Giolito makes the rotation very thin with guys who do not have a track record of staying healthy in a full season. Though I do not wish for injuries on anybody, someone in the rotation is inevitably going to go down. It happens to almost every team in the league, but it seems more prevalent for the Red Sox.
The depth in AAA is extremely thin with Chris Murphy reportedly having a major elbow issue that will sideline him for at least the majority of the 2024 season. Brandon Walter is the only other depth piece in AAA on the 40-man roster. Cooper Criswell’s role is most likely going to be a spot starter who makes starts here and there for the major league team.
Let’s look at the rotation. Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta can start games every 5th day consistently. But Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford did not make more than 25 starts last season. 10 plus starts by August 1 for Criswell could be generous, so don’t be surprised if he is a regular starter in the rotation by mid-April. I would also not be shocked if the Red Sox call up one of Wikelman Gonzalez or Richard Fitts in the middle of the season due to necessity.
Take 2: Justin Slaten turns into a reliable arm out of the bullpen.
In the past three seasons, there has always been one pitcher for the Red Sox that came out of nowhere and contributed to the bullpen at a high level. In 2021 that pitcher was Garrett Whitlock. In 2022, it was John Schreiber off of waivers. In 2023, it was Brennan Bernardino who was also picked up via wavers. Justin Slaten can be that “pitcher out of nowhere” that could get some action in high-leverage situations. The Sox traded for him for a reason.
In 2023, Slaten posted a 2.87 ERA in 35 outings between AA and AAA in the Rangers’ farm system. Slaten fits the Craig Breslow profile: a guy who has high velocity with good swing-and-miss stuff. Because Slaten is a rule-5 player, he has to stay on the active roster for 90 days until the Red Sox can option him.
In Spring Training, Slaten did not give up a single earned run in six appearances. Even though results from Spring Training usually never translate to the regular season, these numbers from a rule-5 player are still very promising. I believe Alex Cora will try to get the most out of him and maximize his potential this season.
Take 3: Ceddanne Rafaela Wins AL Gold Glove in CF
A rookie winning a gold glove is not easy. Rafaela, however, has a good chance to run away with this award. The majority of his value is going to be with his glove, which classified by some, is elite. One could make a highlight reel of all his incredible catches during Spring Training, and it would be stacked with Gold Glove caliber catches. His defense in the major leagues was very shaky when he first got the call up in late August, but it takes time to adjust to the major leagues and he should be able to find his footing.
This might be a stretch, but Rafaela could be one of the best defensive center fielders in the American League by mid-season. He could be on the same defensive level as Kevin Kiermaier. Although there is not a Gold Glove Award specific to center field, it is still a position where players get recognition. Rafaela is set up to be in the running for the Red Sox first Gold Glove since Mookie Betts in 2019.
Take 4: Kenley Jansen is traded at the deadline
If the Red Sox are not competing for a wild card spot, then this trade is a must. Especially with the implementation of the 3rd wild card, it is more likely that the market in late-July is a seller’s market.
This season will be Jansen’s age 36 season, and if the Red Sox want to prioritize young pitching and experiment with guys, it makes sense to trade Jansen to another team to get pitching prospects, which teams like the Red Sox can never have too much of. He’s on an expiring deal so there’s a good chance he’s shopped at the deadline. There’s a case to be made that with the addition of Liam Hendriks, the Sox should shop him, regardless of where they are in the standings. Jansen is more likely than not a part of Craig Breslow’s long-term plans.
Speaking of Breslow, he has shown he is not afraid to trade away some guys. He did it with John Schreiber and traded him for one of the Royals’ top pitching prospects. If an opportunity like that becomes available with Jansen at the deadline, there’s a good chance the Sox will take it.
Take 5: Brayan Bello throws the first Red Sox no-hitter in over 15 years
Bello was very close to a no-hitter in a June start against the Marlins, going 8+ before giving up an infield single. The Red Sox have not thrown a no-hitter since Jon Lester in 2008. The new focus on pitching should improve Bello’s performance. I think this season Bello will take a huge step, and in the process, throw a no-hitter.
No hitters require a little bit of luck, something the Red Sox seemingly cannot get enough of. They also require good defense. Since Bello is a pitch-to-contact type of pitcher at times, a lot of his success is going to be indicative of how good the infield defense is. Trevor Story should improve the left side of the infield, especially with Devers. The right side, however, is a little bit in question, but regardless, Bello has a better infield behind him this season than last.
The Red Sox also gave Bello a pre-arbitration extension, which indicates they have a lot of faith in him. Although Bello has yet to record a season with an ERA under 4.00, the potential to be a front-line starter is there. No hitters can happen to any pitcher, but if Bello can fix some issues with his fastball command and work on more swing and miss stuff, he has a chance to make Red Sox history.
