Breaking Down the Boston Red Sox Bullpen Competition
Lost in all the drama of whatever is going on with Rafael Devers is a really interesting competition to make the Opening Day bullpen with plenty of spots up for grabs and plenty of worthy contenders. The first five spots seem pretty clear at this point.
-Liam Hendriks
- Justin Slaten
-Aroldis Chapman
-Garrett Whitlock
-Justin Wilson
After that, things are pretty up in the air. There are three more spots open and a lot of mouths to feed. While the closer situation isn’t as clear cut as many would probably like (Hendriks the current favorite but has not thrown an MLB pitch in nearly two years), this is one of the deeper groups of pitchers the organization has had in a while. Given the high attrition rate experienced in most modern bullpens, we’ll likely end up seeing the majority of these guys contribute at the big-league level at one point or another. Please keep in mind that all of this information is fluid. Things can change in a hurry this time of year.
-Luis Guerrero and Zack Kelly have the highest ceilings of the group. Guerrero has long been the top bullpen prospect in the system due to his impressive fastball paired with an above average changeup, and a splitter that is very difficult for hitters to pick up on. He was excellent in a late season cup of coffee, allowing just one unearned run in ten MLB innings. Kelly played a significant role in the 2024 bullpen, often being used in leverage situations. His stuff is excellent, particularly his changeup, newly learned sweeper, and a fastball that topped out at 99 mph. He was a highlight of the first half but eventually broke down due to overuse and ended the season on a very sour note. A restful offseason and a full MLB season under his belt should help remedy that.
-Recently signed veteran Adam Ottavino probably has a leg up due to the lack of options. A key contributor for Boston in 2021, he was a mixed bag for the Mets last year, but the under-the-radar numbers looked solid despite his advanced age (he turned 39 in November). Austin Adams another veteran on an MiLB deal to keep an eye on. He was effective in Oakland (RIP) last year despite a tendency to hit batters with his slider.
-Hunter Dobbins is a real wild card. Recently added to the 40-man roster, there's been consideration towards him being used in a 2023 Kutter Crawford-type role. Can get close to triple digits on the fastball out of the pen, but has an expansive arsenal including a nasty splinker to work with and a real understanding of how to pitch which makes him a better candidate to start long-term. The #1 pitching prospect in the system with Luis Perales currently shelved due to Tommy John Surgery.
-Speaking of Kutter Crawford, he appears to be the odd man out unless the team goes with a six-man starting rotation. His stuff could play up out of the pen but it remains to be seen if he’d be a swingman to keep him stretched out or if he’d be used in a leverage role where he could let his stuff fly. Personally, I lean towards the earlier option. He’s currently a bit banged up with a kneecap injury so it may be a moot point.
-Greg Weissert was better than he’s credited in 2024. Like the aforementioned Zack Kelly, he was totally gassed and overused by the time season ended but he had some real stretches of legitimacy, and it shows on the back of his baseball card.
-Josh Winckowski and Cooper Criswell are both candidates for the Chase Anderson innings eater role out of the pen. I'd lean more towards Criswell because he doesn't throw as hard and is generally more rubber-armed. Its honestly the perfect place for a guy with his pedigree. Chris and Ian mused about a John Schreiber-like trade involving Winckowski on the last @SoxProspects pod. That would make sense to me. He's probably too good and too experienced to be at Triple-A again but as the roster stands now, he's doesn't really have a role beyond depth. Lefty and Middleborough, MA native Sean Newcomb also in the conversation.
-Brennan Bernardino will probably start the season at Triple-A as the third lefty unless someone gets hurt. While one of the better lefty arms the Sox have had the last couple of seasons, he's clearly behind Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson on the LH depth chart. Newly acquired veteran Matt Moore trails him and possibly Jovani Moran who was acquired from the Twins in exchange for Mickey Gasper.
-Keep an eye on Isaiah Campbell who apparently put on a ton of muscle and looks like a new man after an injury plagued 2024. The potential is very much still there, and he has an advantage over some of the other righties because he's difficult for lefties to hit.
-Bryan Mata, Wyatt Mills, Robert Stock, and Noah Davis all will get opportunities to show what they’ve got. Same with 2016 AL Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer who was actually signed last year. He'll be at least initially stretched out as a starter but given the depth in that department, he may end up back in the pen where he thrived in 2021 and 2022.
I think the amount of pure depth Breslow has put together is impressive. As you stated, a pitcher without any options like Ottavino & Moore might have a leg up on an arm like Kelly or Guerrero just b/c those two have options. A guy like Fulmer might end up being the surprise name to make the club out of spring training, but if he proves to need a few games to get into a groove, that could hurt him b/c he'd have to be DFA'd if he doesn't perform right away & the Red Sox wouldn't want to lose him after signing him over a year ago & putting in all that time, effort, & energy to get him right. Moran & Winckowski might be the odd men out on Opening Day. Who else doesn't have options? Mata, Campbell, Stock, Newcombe, & Noah Davis. So, if they go north w/the Big Club, they'd have to be DFA'd if they aren't quite ready for prime time. I'd say Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Chapman, & Wilson are the five (in agreement w/you), with Ottavino, Wink, & Moore as 5-8 with the others coming up from Worcester if & when poor performance or injury necessitates it. Kelly, Bernardino, Weissert, & Campbell are all going to be upset having to start in Worcester, but I believe they'll all get their shots this year along w/Guerrero, Davis, Newcombe, & Moran. Does Fulmer have an opt out like Ottavino & Moore does? If so, I'd suspect he starts in Boston over Wink & takes that bulk role along w/Whitlock. I cannot see Stock getting a shot unless he lights it up in Worcester. I see Dobbins staying stretched out & starting in Worcester & not being given a shot in the bullpen unless it's absolutely necessary. It's good to have this many solid options. In the past 3 seasons, it just appeared the Sox were throwing spaghetti against the wall & seeing who would stick. Now, it appears they have plenty of solid options as well as depth to compete at the top end of the Division & of the AL. Great article Chris. Keep up the great work 💪🏼