Boston’s most underrated move of the offseason
Chris Martin’s volatile 2022, a lesson in pitchability and promise for continued success
Chris Martin will not be the most overpowering pitcher to don a Red Sox uniform in 2023, but he certainly could make a case to be the most effective. The righty reliever signed a two-year, $17.5-million contract with Boston via free agency following a season in which he posted a 3.05 ERA in 60 appearances with the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Martin notably had a 4.31 ERA in 31.1 innings with Chicago and a 1.46 ERA in 24.2 innings after being dealt to Los Angeles at the deadline. The stark difference between his first and second half of the 2022 season may leave some fans wondering if the latter is sustainable.
Breaking down the two halves
A lot of credit was given to Martin’s excellent run after being traded to the Dodgers, but, the truth is, he was performing on an elite level even prior to the trade. Martin’s 2.02 xFIP with Chicago was the third-best mark in Major League Baseball over his span on the North Side.
Don’t think xFIP matters? Check the names he’s between:
But why did the results not show?
Martin’s relatively poor 4.31 ERA with the Cubs corresponds with a .393 BABIP - the fourth-highest average by opposing hitters against a qualified relief pitcher from March-July. His 20.8% HR/FB rate was sixth amongst that same sample.
While the home run rate indicated some poor luck (and the xFIP adjustment), a portion of Martin’s lack of fortune on balls in play could be attributed to the defense behind him.
The Dodgers amassed 86 defensive runs saved* in 2022 (2nd in MLB), versus the Cubs’ total of just four.
*It’s worth noting that LA accumulated a league-leading 38 DRS via infield shifting in 2022 - something they will be unable to do in 2023.
The defensive upgrade to the Dodgers correlates with Martin’s .200 BABIP with Los Angeles. He also benefitted in the home run department, displaying a much improved 4.5% HR/FB rate.
A strong defense is crucial for a pitcher who pounds the zone. Martin does just that, and - as previously noted - Boston will need to showcase an improved defense in 2023 with an offseason spent building around pitchers who are strikethrowers.
Martin is probably best known for his ability to avoid the free pass; his 2.2% walk rate in 2022 ranked 1st in MLB. But his 4-seamer (which he throws about 40 percent of the time) has league-average velocity (95.3 MPH) with below-average spin (2182 RPM).
Martin also manages to strike a lot of batters (32.9 K%) out without whiffing many (25.7% swing & miss), and, despite his low walk totals, he only throws 54.8% of his pitches in the zone - still above the league average (49.9%) but not as high as you might expect.
All of this is by design. Martin uses location and sequencing better than perhaps any pitcher in baseball.
A lesson in pitchability
Martin displays some strategies that are crucial for retiring hitters without elite stuff.
Strategy #1: Attack the zone
Martin almost always gets ahead of batters on the first pitch and rarely gets to three-ball counts. His 77.8 first-pitch strike percentage led the league by over six percent, ahead of Edwin Diaz’s 71.1 mark.
Why is this important?
Hitters after a 1-0 count in 2022: .255/.371/.428
Hitters after an 0-1 count in ‘22: .213/.258/.334
Strategy #2: Keep hitters guessing
Let’s check out Martin’s tie-game, bases-loaded at-bat versus All-Star Manny Machado.
Note Martin’s utilization of the fastball to set up the secondary stuff, with all pitches coming in on a similar plane.
As a result of his superior sequencing and ability to locate, Martin’s unassuming fastball & cutter combination devastated opposing hitters last season. The 4-seamer accrued a .210 wOBA (.216 xWOBA) and a -9 run value over 346 pitches (42.4%). Hitters batted .146 against the pitch.
Martin allowed a .290 average off the cutter (.247 xBA) but opponents only slugged .306 off the pitch (271 pitches - 31.6%).
Martin mixed in several different pitches as third or fourth offerings over the course of the 2022 season. He used a sinker about 15% of the time over the first few months, dropping it to about 5% of the time with Los Angeles. Martin also dropped his curveball in favor of a slider but scrapped both by September.
The split-finger seemed to emerge as his go-to change-of-pace pitch by the last month of the season, an understandable trend considering it generated a .190 xWOBA over 79 pitches.
Regardless of his third and fourth pitches, Martin’s ability to locate should allow him to mostly rely on his fastball and cutter to flummox opposing batters over the course of the 2023 season.
Strategy #3: Locate with intelligence
Eno Sarris of The Athletic recently teased the leaders in projected Location+, describing the stat as a way to judge a pitcher's command by “looking at if they throw their different pitch types to the right places in the right counts” (via Twitter).
Martin ranked second in projected Location+.
In essence, the Pitching+ model projections show confidence in Martin’s ability to locate pitches well situationally.
For example, sometimes it’s a smart thing to throw a quality pitch outside the strike zone in the right count.
Just as it can be a bad thing to throw a strike at a poor time.
It’s worth noting that Ryan Brasier’s slider is actually rated as the 6th best individual pitch in MLB based on 2022 Pitching+. Poor fastball execution most of the season is what led to his unappealing results. More on Brasier’s arsenal:
Looking ahead
Martin’s strong base of work over the full course of the 2022 season should give fans more confidence than they might have had solely judging him off of just 24.1 innings with Los Angeles.
The peripherals during his time with Chicago show that he was displaying excellence long before he was dealt to the Dodgers.
Martin’s success can largely be attributed to his pitchability, which includes his awareness to throw and locate the right pitches in the right counts.
Gone are the days of Red Sox setup men who fall behind hitters and hand out free passes. If you’re looking for efficiency, you’ll enjoy watching Martin this season.
Follow Ryan on Twitter @RRyanMedeiros
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