Boston Red Sox State of the Union address
Tensions are high within the Red Sox fan base after another ugly defeat at the hands of the Colorado Rockies
What makes baseball so great is its randomness and volatility from year-to-year.
However, that also makes it possibly the most frustrating one to be a fan of; it’s a 1% chance, 99% faith sport predicated on who catches the most breaks.
The Boston Red Sox certainly haven’t been immune to the extremes of the baseball circle of life over the past decade. The highs have been fruitful, while the lows have been rather embarrassing and tough to watch.
That said, during the Chaim Bloom era, it seems more and more like 2021 was an outlier season in what’s been a heated point in Red Sox history. After another extra-innings loss to the lowly Colorado Rockies, Boston is 33-35 and 12-21 since its eight-game winning streak.
Oh and, if you haven’t been told already on Twitter 6,000 times today, the Red Sox are last in the American League East.
But why has it been so topsy-turvy during the Bloom era? It’s Year 4 and the team is staring down the barrel of its third last-place finish under Bloom’s guidance. Shouldn’t the team be contending by now?
What is taking so long?
The American League East is a gauntlet.
With the exception of the Red Sox, who were as of June 6, every team in the division is above .500, while the top three teams make up the best, second-best and fourth-best records in the AL.
Competing in the division is very hard, especially when your best pitcher –– Chris Sale –– is injured and your highest-paid player –– Rafael Devers –– has struggled. All those two things do is apply more pressure onto lesser talented players and/or rookies, thus causing guys to press and ultimately struggle themselves.
But while the Red Sox were under the guidance of Dave Dombrowski, they had a young nucleus already in place: Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr in 2015 –– then Andrew Benintendi in 2016 and Devers in 2017.
They also had fewer holes to fill than their last-place finish in 2015 would indicate.
Dombrowski could sell off prospects like Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech and Manuel Margot to bring in Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel. Since nobody was on a massive contract, they could afford to bring in David Price to solidify the rotation. The nucleus of the MLB team was set in stone.
He did his job. He brought a World Series title to Boston. But, one year later, the team had one of the worst farm systems in the sport and a roster that couldn’t get out of its own way en route to an 84-78 season.
In 2018 and 2019, all other teams in the division were gearing up for the future.
In the 2019 draft, when the Red Sox didn’t pick until 43rd overall (Cameron Cannon), the Orioles took Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, the Blue Jays took Alek Manoah and the Yankees took Anthony Volpe. The Rays drafted Matthew Liberatore, who they traded to St. Louis in a deal to acquire Randy Arozarena in Jan. 2020.
In 2018, when the Red Sox drafted first baseman Triston Casas, the Rays drafted Shane McClanahan and the Orioles took Grayson Rodriguez. That same season, the Rays also traded RHP Chris Archer to the Pittsburgh Pirates for OF Austin Meadows (later traded for 3B Isaac Paredes), and RHPs Tyler Glasnow and Shane Baz.
While, if you’re a Red Sox fan, you absolutely are ecstatic and grateful for the 2018 season, it’s important to note what the other teams were doing at the same time.
All of these young phenoms are now up and making an impact at the MLB level, with the exception of Volpe (consensus top-10 prospect entering the season). Meanwhile, while the Red Sox do have Casas and young RHPs Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello at the MLB level as part of the young nucleus, the only remaining piece of the one Dombrowski inherited is Devers.
As a result, they had to fill the roster out with short-term veteran contracts to buy time for the Marcelo Mayers and Nick Yorkes of the world.
It’s hard to compete in the AL East when that’s how you need to construct your roster.
Opinion: 2022 was sort of a half-baked attempt to “improve” from 2021.
No matter what side of the fence you’re on with the current state of the roster, we all can agree the 2021 roster overachieved.
Whitlock was a Rookie of the Year contender and the Red Sox got career years from Hunter Renfroe, Kiké Hernández, Nathan Eovaldi, Matt Barnes and Bobby Dalbec.
They also were incredibly fortunate from a health standpoint: eight position players logged at least 133 games (five played 144 or more) and five pitchers made at least 22 starts (three made 30 or more).
When all of that happens, plus you get great contributions from deadline acquisitions like Kyle Schwarber and Hansel Robles, you’re gonna run into a Cinderella campaign.
Unfortunately for them, the clock struck midnight after the first inning in Game 4 of the ALCS.
After that season, Boston tried to sell high on Renfroe, buying back two prospects in exchange for taking on Bradley Jr.’s contract. While they failed to bring in a right-handed outfield bat to replace Renfroe, they added infielder Trevor Story.
They also added four veteran pitchers in Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Matt Strahm and Jake Diekman.
From a talent standpoint, the roster was probably just as good if not better than 2021’s when factoring in how players develop as they age. Nevertheless, they got the exact opposite kind of luck they had in 2021.
Had they played closer to their true capabilities in 2021, the Red Sox may have sold off some pieces –– Martinez, Christian Vazquez, Nathan Eovaldi –– instead. However, since they were so close to winning it all, the front office may have felt indebted to that nucleus to give it one more shot despite so many lame-duck contracts.
What should fans do now?
It’s hard to ask this of Boston sports fans, but patience is really the only option. The 2023 roster is better than the 2022 roster. However, the rest of the division now is seeing its young nuclei get better, with some even blossoming into stars and beyond.
The Red Sox just aren’t in that tier right now. While it’s certainly not necessarily worth supporting with blind faith, the front office is building up the farm with exciting prospects like the aforementioned Mayer and Yorke, Roman Anthony, Shane Drohan, Miguel Bleis and Mikey Romero.
This stuff just takes time, that’s all. The Houston Astros weren’t consistently good until 2017. That team’s homegrown nucleus was Jose Altuve (2007), Dallas Keuchel (2009), George Springer (2011), Carlos Correa (2012), Lance McCullers Jr. (2012) and Alex Bregman (2015).
They then added the likes of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole through trades, while also getting the most out of Collin McHugh and Charlie Morton.
Again, it takes time to build a consistent winner. As just mentioned with the Astros, it took a decade for them to be consistently good from the time they added Altuve in 2007 –– took eight years for them to make the playoffs.
Now, this is in no way suggesting that Bloom and co. have an eight-plus-year leash to make this team a consistent contender, but it’s important to understand it takes more than a couple of years and a wave of a magic wand to go from where Boston was in 2019 to where the Astros or Braves or Dodgers or Rays are now.
Follow Jordan on Twitter @JordanLeandre55
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The troubling thing about this series is watching the Rockies consistently pull off excellent defensive plays while the Red Sox make multiple miscues. Often an inferior team can win simply by playing better. Clearly the Red Sox are slowly developing the necessary talent, but I'm worried that talent won't get them anywhere if they can't execute consistently.
Well stated. Unfortunately patience is in short supply in Red Sox Nation