Another White Sox starter makes sense for Red Sox in trade
In recent weeks, people tossed around RHPs Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito as potential Red Sox trade targets. However, there's one more option from Chicago's Southside.
With a little over one month before the MLB trade deadline, it’s becoming time for names to float around as potential trade targets for teams.
In fact, as of Friday evening, the first notable trade of deadline season came to fruition with utility man Eduardo Escobar traded from the New York Mets to the Los Angeles Angels.
For the Boston Red Sox, it can often be hard to pinpoint what exactly they need to address. On the surface, the rotation lacks recognizable star power, yet has emerged as a strength of the team –– ironically –– since the injury to ace left-hander Chris Sale.
That said, the likes of Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford haven’t truly felt the stress of being a starting pitcher in the back half of the summer as the team tries to close in on the postseason.
Naturally, that creates discussion about what the team could do externally to alleviate the stress on its pitching staff.
In the past few weeks, names have begun floating around: Chicago White Sox All-Stars Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito, as well as recently designated for assignment right-hander Zac Plesac of the Cleveland Guardians.
However, one name that hasn’t come up yet would make a lot of sense for this Red Sox team, is the burly 36-year-old right-hander, Lance Lynn.
Lynn is in Year 2 of a potential three-year deal ($18 million club option in 2024) with the White Sox. In 15 starts, he’s posted a lackluster 6.51 earned run average in 84.1 innings.
His peripheral data isn’t elite either, but encourages he’s due for serious positive regression –– 3.84 expected FIP and 3.86 SIERA.
That, coupled with exiting an organization 13 games under .500 for a team on the precipice of a postseason spot could reinvigorate the veteran hurler.
But why would the Red Sox, who are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in by 1.5 games, take a chance on a 36-year-old having his worst season in half a decade?
1. He’s still one of the better strikeout pitchers in baseball
With a strikeout rate of 26.9%, Lynn ranks tied for 14th among MLB starters in strikeout proficiency.
With the exception of Sale and James Paxton, Lynn would rank first on the Red Sox in that category and, including those two, he’d still be the top right-handed starter in that stat.
Even though he’s having his worst season with walks since 2018, he’s got a career-high in strikeouts per nine innings and his third-best strikeout rate (minimum of 50 innings).
He’d also come with a strikeout-to-walk rate that only Crawford bests among the right-handers in contention for starting spots right now.
2. Postseason experience
While his postseason resume isn’t quite in the realm of a Curt Schilling or Madison Bumgarner, Lynn boasts 58 innings of postseason experience.
He’s worked 19 games out of the bullpen and eight as a starter, posting a 3.90 SIERA and a 4.03 xFIP.
His flexibility in his roles could prove beneficial to a team like the Red Sox if they made it to October baseball, much in the way Nick Pivetta’s transition to the bullpen has in the regular season this year.
However, having someone like Lynn in the mix, allows Boston to consider giving someone like Crawford his first taste of the postseason in a lower-stakes role as a swingman instead of potentially starting a pivotal Game 3 or 4.
3. Unlike Giolito and/or Cease, Lynn should come cheap
Given the struggles Lynn’s had this season, particularly with the long ball, the asking price for him shouldn’t be expensive compared to the likes of his fellow rotation-mates.
At 36, with a fairly hefty club option –– albeit with only a $1 million buyout –– in 2024 and an ERA over six, the only way Chicago could offload the deal would be to play ball with the acquiring team.
For the Red Sox, the usual suspects come to mind when it comes to a potential trade for Lynn: infielders Bobby Dalbec and Christian Arroyo, the right-handed reliever Pivetta and lower-tier prospects.
Pivetta, for all his heroics in the bullpen this season thus far, is set to make north of $7 million next season in arbitration. If the Red Sox view him as more of a reliever going forward than a starter, there’s an increasing likelihood he’d be one of those surprise cuts at the season’s end.
Swapping Lynn for someone like Pivetta, who’s six years younger and would be cheaper than picking up Lynn’s option, could prove beneficial for a team like the White Sox.
And, for the Red Sox, trading an expendable asset for someone they could either pick up the somewhat reasonable $18 million option on or buy out for $1 million next year, all while improving their odds at making a run in 2023 seems beneficial as well.
Official mock trade …
Red Sox get: RHP Lance Lynn and cash considerations
White Sox get: RHPs Nick Pivetta and Chase Shugart
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