American League All-Star Roster Prediction
A look at which AL players could be in Seattle for the 2023 All-Star Game
With Phase 2 of All-Star voting well underway, it’s time to seriously consider which players may be honored to participate in the esteemed Midsummer Classic. This year’s game will take place on July 11th at T-Mobile Park with Seattle hosting for the first time since 2001.
All-Star rosters consist of 32 players: 20 position players (at least two from each position) and 12 pitchers (four relievers). Each team must have at least one representative.
Positional starters will be decided by the aforementioned Phase 2 of fan voting. Reserves and pitchers are selected from a combination of the Players Ballot and the Commissioner’s Office.
This year’s projected American League roster has fifteen first-time All-Stars and six lone representatives.
Reminder: This is a projection, not the official roster. With that said, let’s get into it:
Catcher:
Adley Rutschman – Baltimore Orioles – STARTER (First-Time All-Star)
Jonah Heim – Texas Rangers – Reserve (First-Time All-Star)
Salvador Perez – Kansas City Royals – Reserve (8th Career Selection) – Lone Rep
Both Phase 2 finalists at the catcher position are deserving candidates, ranking 1-2 in the AL positionally in most offensive categories. Heim actually leads the vote 54% to 46% as of 12:30 ET on Tuesday, but the guess is that Orioles star Rutschman will ultimately get the nod with Heim earning the player’s vote.
Perez, the Royals’ team representative, has been one of the lone bright spots for Kansas City in 2023 as he continually has solid offensive outputs with 15 HR & .475 SLG this season.
First Base:
Yandy Diaz – Tampa Bay Rays – STARTER (First-Time All-Star)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Toronto Blue Jays – (3rd Career Selection)
Ryan Noda – Oakland Athletics – Reserve (First-Time All-Star) – Lone Rep
Guerrero Jr. has been very good this season (125 WRC+), but Diaz has been elite (164), batting .316 with a .404 on-base and .518 slugging percentage. The latter is leading fan voting 54% to 46% Tuesday, and whoever loses the starting nod will likely garner the players’ vote regardless.
Meanwhile, rule-five pick Noda has been an on-base machine for Oakland, leading the league in walk rate by three percent (18.3 BB%) en route to a .387 OBP. Both he and Brent Rooker (131 WRC+) would be solid choices to represent the A’s.
Second Base:
Marcus Semien – Texas Rangers – STARTER (2nd Career Selection)
Brandon Drury – Los Angeles Angels – Reserve (First-Time All-Star)
Semien (66% of the vote thus far) has been excellent all season for a surprising Rangers team, tallying a league-most 63 runs while driving in 55 more. He should clearly be the pick to start over co-finalist Whit Merrifield (34%) of the Blue Jays.
Overshadowed by teammates Trout and Ohtani, Drury has sneakily been a crucial piece to the Angels’ run at a postseason spot. He’s slugging .494 on the season while producing at a well-above-league-average clip (119 WRC+).
Third Base:
Josh Jung – Texas Rangers – STARTER (First-Time All-Star)
Matt Chapman – Toronto Blue Jays – Reserve (2nd Career Selection)
Jose Ramirez – Cleveland Guardians – Reserve (5th Career Selection)
One of the toughest votes for fans in Phase 2 has to be Chapman versus Jung. Chapman has shown flashes on both sides of the ball this season (2.5 fWAR), while rookie star Jung has put himself on the map with a strong offensive performance (15 HR, 52 R & 44 RBI). Both Blue Jays and Rangers fans have come out in droves to vote this season, but we’ll go with the trends and guess Jung (59%) will earn the nod over Chapman (41%), who should be selected as a reserve.
As an aside, Ramirez has had perhaps the best season of the three and may sneak onto the roster thanks to a continuation of impressive offensive numbers (.872 OPS). Isaac Paredes of Tampa Bay is also a worthy pick at what has become a deep position (141 WRC+).
Shortstop:
Corey Seager — Texas Rangers – STARTER (4th Career Selection)
Bo Bichette – Toronto Blue Jays — Reserve (2nd Career Selection)
The only thing that could keep Corey Seager out of the starting spot is playing time, as he’s been limited to 47 games due to injury. He’s been incredible when on the field (.344/.409/.608), but missing almost a month of action hurts when evaluating just half a season’s work at a stacked position.
Bichette has played 31 more games than Seager this season and is second in the AL amongst qualified hitters in average (.318), seventh in slugging (.508) and eighth in OPS (.856). Still, Seager is leading Bichette 60% to 40% in fan voting, which could push the latter to the reserve role.
Rays’ star Wander Franco has had an excellent all-around season, but defensive performance doesn’t seem to be weighed as heavily when it comes to All-Star selection. Taking that out of the equation, Franco’s bat doesn’t quite stack up to Bichette and Seager. His recent benching isn’t helping his case on the players’ ballot either…
Not saying those factors should keep him off the team, but rather that they may.
Outfield:
Randy Arozarena – Tampa Bay Rays – STARTER (First-Time All-Star)
Austin Hays – Baltimore Orioles – STARTER (First-Time All-Star)
Mike Trout – Los Angeles Angels – STARTER (11th Career Selection)
Adolis Garcia — Texas Rangers — Reserve (2nd Career Selection)
Luis Robert Jr. – Chicago White Sox – Reserve (First-Time All-Star) – Lone Rep
*Injured* – Aaron Judge – New York Yankees (Fifth Career Selection)
*Injured* – Yordan Alvarez – Houston Astros – (2nd Career Selection)
Alvarez and Judge’s injuries may not stop fans from voting them in as starters, and deservedly so, as the two have managed 17 and 19 homers despite having played only 57 and 49 games respectively.
The guess is Arozarena (.405 OBP) and Hays (.319 AVG) will replace Alvarez and Judge as starters alongside Trout, making room for Garcia (61 RBI) on the roster with Robert (3.3 fWAR) as Chicago’s lone representative.
Percentages of Phase 2 fan vote (as of 12:30 ET Tuesday):
Trout – 22%
Arozarena – 22%
Judge – 19%
Alvarez – 16%
Garcia – 12%
Alex Verdugo (130 WRC+) is a candidate to represent the Red Sox here, but more on their potential rep coming up…
Designated Hitter:
Shohei Ohtani – Los Angeles Angels – AUTO STARTER – (2nd Career Selection)
Justin Turner – Boston Red Sox – Reserve – (3rd Career Selection) – Lone Rep
Here’s where things get tricky. Per the All-Star selection process, there must be at least two representatives from each position. Behind Ohtani — who earned automatic-starter status by tallying the most votes in Phase 1 of fan voting — there is no clear candidate for the designated hitter position in the American League (the rule should be that any batter is eligible to DH — but that’s not how the selection process works).
The prediction here is that Turner’s good reputation around the league garners him the players’ vote as a reserve. Another potential option is Tampa’s Harold Ramirez (132 WRC+), which would mean the league office would need to find another player to be the Red Sox’ lone rep (ex: Verdugo).
Pitchers:
Starting Pitchers:
Shane McLanahan – Tampa Bay Rays – (2nd Career Selection)
Gerrit Cole – New York Yankees – (6th Career Selection)
Framber Valdez – Houston Astros – (2nd Career Selection)
Nathan Eovaldi – Texas Rangers – (2nd Career Selection)
Joe Ryan – Minnesota Twins – (First-Time All-Star)
Kevin Gausman – Toronto Blue Jays – (2nd Career Selection)
Luis Castillo – Seattle Mariners – (3rd Career Selection) – Lone Rep
Michael Lorenzen – Detroit Tigers – (First-Time All-Star) – Lone Rep
Relief Pitchers:
Felix Bautista – Baltimore Orioles – (First-Time All-Star)
Emmanuel Clase – Cleveland Guardians – (2nd Career Selection)
Johan Duran – Minnesota Twins — (First-Time All-Star)
Carlos Estevez – Los Angeles Angels – (First-Time All-Star)
There are lots of tough selections here with less clarity for predictions. It ultimately comes down to the players and Commissioner’s Office to decide what pitchers participate in the Midsummer Classic.
Some of the starting pitchers named will likely be rendered unable to partake due to rotational schedules, so respectable arms such as Tampa’s Zach Eflin, Minnesota’s Sonny Gray and Seattle’s George Kirby could get the call after the initial roster reveal.
In the pen, Baltimore’s setup man Yennier Cano (0.95 ERA) shouldn’t be overlooked but may lack the esteem of the higher-profile closers. Ohtani could also shake things up if he’s elected as a pitcher.
All-Star starters will be revealed on Thursday, June 29, at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Pitchers and reserves will be announced at 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN on Sunday, July 2.