Alex Verdugo has broken out; is his elite performance here to stay?
Fit with a sparkling diamond grill, multiple chains bouncing around his neck, and some colorful interviews, there’s never been a question Alex Verdugo has the personality of a star. And in 2023, he seems to finally have begun to unlock his true potential.
Verdugo arrived in Boston in 2020 with high expectations, being the centerpiece of a very minor trade involving a decent outfielder called Mookie Betts. Verdugo impressed early on, posting a 125 wRC+ and a 1.9 WAR in just 53 games.
However, the Arizona native took a step back in the following years, putting together mediocre seasons in 2021 and 2022, hovering around the 1-2 WAR mark in both years. Despite posting slightly above-average offense numbers in both years, Verdugo struggled mightily on the defensive side, landing in the 10th and 13th percentiles in OAA, respectively.
But after a stint with Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic, the ever-flamboyant “Dugie'' has turned up the notch in 2023. Check out these ridiculous percentiles;
xwOBA 86th percentile
xBA 99th percentile
xSLG 80th percentile
K% 94th percentile
Whiff% 97th percentile
Chase Rate 81st percentile
Outs Above Avg 94th percentile
Outfielder Jump 75th percentile
Arm Strength 93rd percentile
Always an extremely low swing-and-miss guy, Verdugo has been consistently lifting the ball off the ground in 2023, a major development from a player who seemed to roll over just a little too often. His GB% sits at a career-low 41.7%, with his FB% and LD% at career highs.
Another interesting note about Verdugo’s approach compared to previous years; he’s become far more selective on pitches inside the zone, with this Zone Swing% eight points lower than in 2022. This controlled approach has led him to a four percent increase in Zone Contact%. Combined with a decreased first pitch swing%, Verdugo managed to put together longer, more competitive at-bats with his elite 13.1 Whiff%.
The 26-year-old’s defensive stats have been the most telling of a potential breakout. According to his brother Chris, Verdugo played on an injured foot for most of last season, potentially hindering his explosiveness and athleticism in the outfield. He always had a strong arm, but his outfielder jump and OAA have absolutely skyrocketed. After a long off-season of recovery, he’s looked like a different player in the challenging right field of Fenway Park.
And before I have to hear from the trolls on Twitter, yes, these are small sample sizes and shouldn’t be analyzed too heavily. But numbers like this don’t just show up out of nowhere, and even the simple eye test will tell you that Dugie may have figured some things out. And if we’re all mistaken and he fizzles out, we’ve always got Connor Wong to make up for it.
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