After a bounce-back year from Matt Moore, he has the potential to offer the Red Sox a high-end lefty arm that could be extremely valuable
A bounce-back year for the former top prospect Matt Moore surprised many in 2022, and he offers a high-end lefty arm that could be extremely valuable to the Red Sox.
Signed to a 1-year, $2.5 million minor league deal by the Texas Rangers last March, Moore was projected as no more than a depth piece for a mediocre Rangers bullpen. Coming off a stint with the SoftBank Hawks of the NPB in 2020 and a miserable 2021 with the Phillies where he posted an atrocious 6.29 ERA and 5.76 FIP, expectations were certainly low. His Baseball Savant page was laden with dark blue circles, and the career of the former #1 prospect seemed to be coming to a close. When Moore showed up in Arizona for Rangers spring training, it was likely his last chance to revive his up-and-down career.
Fast forward to nearly a year later, and Moore’s career has done a complete 180. He put together a masterful campaign in 2022, with a 1.95 ERA in 74 innings pitched. While his FIP was more than a full earned run higher at 2.98, he did an excellent job of limiting hard contact and barrels. His HardHit%, Barrel%, xBA and xSLG were ranked higher than the90th percentile, likely due to the change in Moore’s pitch usage.
In 2021, Moore used his fastball 57.1% of the time, while mixing in his curveball, changeup and cutter at nearly the same rate. Every single one of those pitches got hammered, and each held a run value of three or more. Going into 2022, Moore clearly tweaked his mechanics, adding three inches of vertical movement and dropping nearly eight inches of horizontal movement to his fastball. He scrapped his cutter completely, used his curveball far more and used his changeup as his primary putaway pitch, which produced a crazy 45.7% whiff rate. His new three pitch repertoire became very effective, as opponents batted just .187 and he allowed just three home runs all year.
While Moore’s walk rate was quite poor at 12.5%, landing in the 4th percentile, he still has the ability to be a valuable middle-innings option out of the pen. For a Red Sox team who has just one lefty on the 40-man roster after trading Josh Taylor to the Royals, adding a southpaw is now a definite need. It’s worth noting that Moore’s leverage index is just 1.07, with 1.00 being an average leverage situation. For comparison, John Schreiber, the Red Sox most effective reliever last year, had a leverage index of 1.57.
Even if Moore regresses slightly and is no more than a 7th inning guy, his excellent peripherals and handedness make sense for the Red Sox, who have reportedly “checked in” on Moore per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. After Matt Strahm of the Phillies garnered a 2-year, $15 million contract despite posting a 3.83 ERA in 2021, the market for lefty relievers has undoubtedly ballooned. However, Moore’s value should still work with the Red Sox financial flexibility as they attempt to reinvent a bullpen that has struggled mightily in recent years.
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