A trade for Pirates flamethrower could be great backup plan for Red Sox
It’s no secret the Red Sox are looking to add high-end starting pitching to their rotation this offseason. Boston was connected to Blake Snell before he signed with the Dodgers earlier this week, and they have reportedly turned their attention to Braves free agent southpaw Max Fried.
What if the Red Sox impact the rotation by making a trade that no one expects?
During this past season, right before the trade deadline, the Red Sox traded Nick Yorke to the Pirates and acquired starting pitcher Quinn Priester. No one that covers the Red Sox beat had the club landing the young righty in Priester. This leads me to believe that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow's next potential high-end pitching acquisition might be a surprise move.
It’s not truly known if this is a realistic option, but what if the Red Sox re-opened trade talks with the Pirates again and attempted to acquire hard-throwing righty Jared Jones?
The Pirates are flush with young pitching and could dip into their surplus to add potential bats to their lineup. While Pittsburgh has been developing a strong pitching pipeline, they’ve struggled to develop hitters under the Ben Cherington regime.
Under Cherington, the Pirates have a potential rotation next season that will be led by Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jones. With the likes of Bubba Chandler, Luis Ortiz, Thomas Harrington, Braxton Ashcroft, Michael Kennedy, and Anthony Solometo in the system, Jones could become expendable this offseason.
“I mean, they're loaded, and that's probably going to be, if they do make the playoffs eventually with this regime, that's going to play the primary factor, not just through production, but those are trade chips,” said Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Pirates beat writer Noah Hiles on the "Obstructed View Baseball Podcast."
“You guys talk about Boston. Obviously, they (the Pirates) offloaded a pitching guy, a former first-round pick, Quinn Priester, this past deadline, and I expect them to do more of that, to start trading away these guys in Double-A and Single-A, or maybe even if they want to get aggressive, some of their high-level, high-ranking guys in Triple-A this off season, just because, I mean, like I said, the hitting hasn't necessarily matched the development progress that pitching has. So they're going to have to start evening that out. And when you have a recipe that will allow you to continue churning out these guys, which I think they have, you should be able to do that successfully.”
This brings me back to the idea of acquiring Jones after the club signs a high-end starter like Max Fried or even Corbin Burnes.
Jones completed his first year in the bigs and had a strong season, posting a 6-8 record while recording a 4.14 ERA and 4.00 FIP with 132 strikeouts to just 39 walks over 121 2/3 innings in 22 starts. By the end of July, Jones’ ERA sat at 3.56 with 98 strikeouts, but a right lat strain derailed his momentum. Once he returned off the injured list in August, the righty didn’t really look the same on the mound.
There’s a lot to like about Jones; he’s a strikeout machine, owning a 26.2% strikeout percentage to just a 7.7% walk percentage, according to FanGraphs. His fastball was his most valuable pitch, ranking in the 72nd percentile in fastball run value, which really means that only 28% of the league had a more valuable heater. His fastball velocity ranked in the 93rd percentile at 97.3 mph.
One issue was his hard-hit value, which ranked in the eighth percentile at 44.5 percent. If the Red Sox add him to their pitching program, Boston can work on his breaking stuff under the guidance of Andrew Bailey, pitching coordinator Justin Willard, and DriveLine founder Kyle Boddy.
Jones, 22, has a ton of potential and is controllable through the 2030 season, which makes him an incredible trade asset. With five years of full control, a package to acquire a pitcher of Jones’ caliber will be aggressive.
The Red Sox have a surplus of outfielders, and if they end up winning the Juan Soto sweepstakes, it all but certainly means a player like right field Gold Glove winner Wilyer Abreu will be moved. Boston could certain a package around Abreu, Winkelman Gonzalez, and maybe infielder Chase Meidroth for the young hurler? The Pirates will likely ask for Triston Casas due to his high ceiling, and he’s also under team control. Casas being moved in a potential deal is likely a non-starter for the Red Sox; offering up from their surplus of prospects could be enticing to Cherington.
Meidroth will have a hard time finding playing time in Boston with a loaded infield of Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, Triston Casas, Marcelo Mayer, and Kristian Campbell knocking on the door. Let’s also not forget Vaughn Grissom is still firmly in the mix to play second base next season.
The idea of adding Jones really only makes sense if the Red Sox are able to land Fried or Burnes. Boston needs one of those two free agents to lead the rotation, and then bringing in a player like Jones allows them to slot him back in the rotation. It’s likely that Garrett Crochet remains high on the Red Sox wishlist but if another team swoops in and trades for the southpaw, Jones is a great backup plan for Breslow this offseason.
