2023 Red Sox MLB Draft Preview: Part I
A rundown of the Red Sox picks, bonus pool, and who they may target.
Welcome to Part I of my 2023 Boston Red Sox MLB Draft Preview!
Let’s start this exercise with an admission: no one outside the Red Sox organization knows for sure which player they’ll select 14th overall when the draft kicks off Sunday.
We also have no idea what they’ll do with any of their other 21 selections over three days, or how they’ll use their $10 million-plus bonus pool. The Red Sox play things extremely close to the vest, and any info out there should be taken with a grain of salt.
But what fun would it be to pass on speculation?
With the Red Sox MLB team experiencing an up-and-down season, fans should take note of this upcoming draft. It’s a strong class, and the Sox have not just a top 15 pick but a couple extra compensation picks later on too.
Myself, Derrik Maguire and Hunter Noll ran down all things related to the Red Sox and the MLB Draft on Episode 274 of The Pesky Report, presented by Beyond the Monster. Listen and subscribe below!
Despite divided feelings within the fanbase about the Red Sox front office, this can't be disputed: their amateur scouting infrastructure has done an outstanding job identifying talent in the draft since 2020. It’s likely the strongest area of excellence within the entire baseball operation.
Red Sox draftees in that time such as Nick Yorke, Blaze Jordan, Shane Drohan, Marcelo Mayer, Nathan Hickey, Hunter Dobbins, Christopher Troye, Luis Guerrero, Roman Anthony, Dalton Rogers, Chase Meidroth and others have all produced in the minors. There’s good reason to expect the Red Sox will unearth a few more gems this time around.
Let’s get into it.
Who Might the Red Sox Draft at 14th Overall?
Here are some basics for the Red Sox 2023 draft outlook.
The club has a total 2023 draft bonus pool of $10,295,100 to spend on players they draft. They can exceed the pool by about $500,000 without incurring any overage penalties. The 14th pick alone carries a recommended bonus slot value of $4,663,100. Their next pick is 50th overall ($1.698M), followed by 83rd ($846,800) and 115th ($580,200), and so on.
SoxProspects.com has the full rundown of picks and slot recommendations here.
The Red Sox have two extra picks as compensation for losing Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi in free agency. Because the MLB team ended the 2022 season over the first Collective Bargaining Tax threshold, those picks are immediately after the 4th round at 132nd and 133rd overall (the picks would’ve been after the 2nd round had they stayed under the tax).
Because bonuses for picks in rounds 11-20 do not count towards the bonus cap unless they exceed $150,000, the Red Sox effectively have $10.295M plus about $500,000 in overage to spend on those 12 picks between rounds 1-10.
Now, let’s talk about who the Red Sox might take at 14. The best info we have is from industry media outlet mock drafts. Below you’ll find the rundown of who has been mocked to the Red Sox since May 1 in the following outlets: The Athletic, Baseball America, ESPN, Future Stars Series, MLB Pipeline and Perfect Game. (Note: this is updated through July 4 and more mocks are likely coming between now and Sunday.)
To get an idea of who might be available to the Red Sox at their pick, I’ve compiled how many times players have been mocked in picks 10 through 19 in those above mock drafts (minimum 7 times mocked).
This is where I again say we have no idea who the Red Sox will take. Before the 2022 draft, Carlos Collazo of Baseball America was the only draft insider who connected the Sox to Mikey Romero, who they eventually took with the 24th pick—although Collazo had him slotted more for their 2nd pick at 41st overall.
One thing does seem clear based on pre-draft intel: the Red Sox are eyeing college bats, with a few possible high school bats in the mix too. This makes sense; the college bat class is very strong in 2023, as many talented high school seniors in 2020 opted to go to college instead of participating in the 5-round pandemic year draft.
This Red Sox front office doesn’t draft pitchers high (which I’ll talk about a little more tomorrow) and it’s not a great year for college pitchers who are generally less risky than high school pitchers.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel pointed to the Sox interest in college bats at 14 in his June 26 mock, as did the Athletic’s Keith Law in his own mock on June 20. McDaniel specifically stated the club might go that route at 14 to select “overslot prep position players at later picks.” We’ll get into the strategy a bit more tomorrow as well.
Let’s take a closer look at some realistic Red Sox targets from the college ranks:
Shaw is the college bat most often linked to the Red Sox at 14, having been mocked to them five times by major outlets since mid-May. He hits the ball very hard, doesn’t strike out much and is a plus runner with the ability to swipe bags. The biggest knock on him is defense, as he’s likely to play 2B as a professional. For the Red Sox, he has the added bonus of being a Brimfield, Mass. native.
Troy is a lot like Shaw in that he makes consistent, hard contact, but his power potential is a little lighter. He’s also probably a 2B going forward but has seen time at 3B and OF and is possibly athletic enough to be a CF. He’s a tick slower than Shaw.
Taylor has a beautiful lefty swing that generates outstanding contact and more power this year than before. He’s not an elite runner but he’s got potential to be an excellent defensive 3B. He’ll appeal to many teams because he just turned 21, which is very young for a college draftee. It’d be a mild surprise if he’s still on the board at 14.
The son of longtime MLB SS Jack Wilson, Jacob is an incredible contact hitter, striking out just seven times in 275 plate appearances in 2023. He’s a pure SS and will provide significant stability there at the pro level. There are major questions about if Wilson will hit for power at all, and how he’d handle MLB pitching. He’s got a high floor, though, and there’s value in that.
Vanderbilt OF Enrique Bradfield, Jr.
Bradfield has game-breaking speed and Gold Glove-caliber defense in CF to his credit. Like with Wilson, there’s big value in those things alone. But he’s still a work in progress as a hitter, and he may never have huge power. A team will really have to believe they can make him into a productive pro hitter.
While we’re here, let’s discuss a few high school hitters who might interest the Red Sox at 14:
Parkview HS (Georgia) SS Colin Houck
Houck was Georgia’s state player of the year and a two-sport star in football and baseball. He’ll focus on baseball going forward, and possesses plus raw power albeit with some swing-and-miss in his game. Right now he’s athletic enough to play SS, but probably needs to move to 3B eventually.
Mitchell HS (Florida) 3B Aiden Miller
Miller missed a bunch of time this year with one of those pesky hamate bone injuries, but that hasn’t diminished the hype about him. He’s got serious raw power and could well stick at 3B longterm, he definitely has the arm and footwork for it. He’ll never be fast on the bases, but is a good athlete.
Sinton HS (Texas) C Blake Mitchell
When discussing his time at the Draft Combine on his Name Redacted Podcast, Jared Carrabis raved about his interactions with Mitchell, and noted the Red Sox “like the player” from what he’s heard. There’s good reason: he’s a real power hitter and seems certain to stick at catcher. It’s worth noting 1st-round high school catchers are generally one of the riskiest draft investments.
Strawberry Crest HS (Florida) SS Arjun Nimmala
Nimmala will appeal to many teams in their draft models because of his young age; he doesn’t turn 18 until October. He’s a tremendous athlete who should stick at SS and generates lots of raw power in his swing. Nimmala’s hit tool is not as far along as others here, with more swing-and-miss than perhaps the Red Sox would like.
John Glenn HS (Ohio) SS Colt Emerson
Like Nimmala, Emerson is on the younger side and doesn’t turn 18 until later this month. He fits the profile of a hit-first high school shortstop the Red Sox have liked. He has an outstanding command of the strike zone and should grow into a decent power hitter. Scouts are split on whether Emerson will stay at SS long-term but should be a good defender at 2B or 3B.
A few other names to keep in mind include:
You may be wondering why the Red Sox would entertain drafting players from many of the positions listed above. While catcher is definitely an organizational need, the Red Sox have a lot of middle infield prospects in their system already, plus a 3B in MLB that’s locked up for the next 10 years.
But one of the biggest rules of the MLB draft—which separates it from other drafts in sports that don’t really have minor leagues—is this: don’t draft based on perceived organizational needs, take the best player available on your board. It’s a long path to MLB and tons of things can happen to any player drafted. Talent is what matters—the rest can be figured out later.
Plus, players who are middle infielders as amateurs are generally going to be great athletes and can easily move to another position if needed.
Tomorrow we’ll take a deeper look at how the Red Sox might approach their overall 2023 draft strategy and how they’ll use their bonus pool.
If you’re interested in more on the Red Sox minor league system, I’m joined each week on The Pesky Report by Derrik Maguire and Hunter Noll to talk all things Red Sox prospects. Listen and subscribe to The Pesky Report here.
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Seen most of them play several times. Red Sox will not take a HS kid with pick they aren’t in the business of picking HS in first round. I believe Red Sox will go after Shaw if not available Troy. Wilson is very very raw and the other two are more polished and could move quickly mainly for there bats. Bats are the number one element here Shaw and Troy hit a position would be found for them. Wilson is a true shortstop with tons of skill and bat to ball skills but yet very raw. Houck I have seen a few hrs away from here big strong SS but again very raw and yrs away from figuring it out with the adjustments to pro ball take. Red Sox will not take a catcher in first round either most teams will not take on a HS school catcher in first few rounds. The draft crap shoot a lot of the draft depends on what other teams do and who they claim they will select. There are hundreds of names on dry erase boards in the draft war room believe me. It’s not as easy as you see on MLB Network. Days,months,years of research have gone into these players. Should be interesting