2023 Red Sox 40-Man Roster Rundown: Part III (James Paxton, Nick Pivetta, Ceddanne Rafaela and more!)
Running down the good and not-so-good of each member of the Red Sox 40-man roster.
Today I’m continuing my analysis of all members of the 2023 Boston Red Sox 40-man roster as the season draws closer. Here’s Part One, where I covered Wilyer Abreu through Rafael Devers.
Here’s Part Two where I talked about Jarren Duran through Bryan Mata.
I’m looking at the whole 40-man alphabetically and pointing out what each player does well, and what they need to work on for success in the 2023 season.
Here we go!
Reese McGuire
What He Does Well: Before he was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline, McGuire was best known for his defense. Much to everyone’s surprise, McGuire handled the bat well in Boston, slashing .337/.377/.500/.877 and hitting 3 HRs in 108 PAs. Defensively, McGuire has a solid arm (66% caught stealing rate in 2022) and pitchers seemed to like throwing to him.
What He Needs to Work On: The Sox could have acquired a real starting catcher in the offseason but showed confidence in McGuire and didn’t do that. It’s hard to believe he’ll sustain his 2022 Boston hitting performance over a full season, but as long as he doesn’t fall flat on his face he should provide the Sox the needed value at catcher.
Wyatt Mills
What He Does Well: When the Sox acquired Mills from Kansas City over the winter, many noted right away the similarities in sidearm delivery to that of John Schreiber. The Sox picked Schreiber up off the scrap heap from Detroit and turned him into a devastatingly effective reliever in 2022, and the Sox will try to do the same with Mills. He doesn’t throw hard but is as four-seamer/sinker/slider-type.
What He Needs to Work On: Mills is in the mix for a roster spot due to injuries to other pitchers, but he hasn’t looked amazing in spring training so far: giving up 5 ERs and 5 BBs in 6 IP, to go along with 10 Ks through Sunday. Mills has a minor league option left, so he feels likely to spend much of his time in Worcester refining his delivery and finding consistency to ideally unearth another bullpen diamond in the rough.
Adalberto Mondesí
What He Does Well: When healthy (and I’ll get to that), Mondesí is a sparkplug who makes things happen on the bases and at SS. His career 162-game average of 60 SBs would’ve led MLB each of the last five years. He’s a superlative defensive SS and with occasional pop. The Sox were right to take a chance on his upside.
What He Needs to Work On: Mondesí can’t stay on the field consistently, outside of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He’ll start 2023 on the IL as he returns from knee surgery, and a part-time role may help his durability. Mondesí must continue to work on lowering his career 30.2% K rate and raising his 4.4% BB rate once he returns.
Chris Murphy
What He Does Well: The 2022 season was a tale of two cities for 2019 Sox draftee Murphy. The lefty was excellent in Portland, registering a 2.58 ERA and 91 Ks in 76.2 IP. When he’s on, Murphy’s changeup is his best pitch. He’s not a hard thrower and will get by on command and deception.
What He Needs to Work On: The other story for Murphy in 2022 were his struggles upon his promotion to Worcester, where his ERA ballooned to 5.50 in 76.2 IP. He gave up a lot more hits and walks and struck out fewer batters. While Murphy’s ceiling is likely an MLB bullpen longman, he must get back to the consistency he showed in Portland to stick.
Kaleb Ort
What He Does Well: Ort, who was selected by the Red Sox in the 2020 minor league Rule 5 draft, made his way to the big leagues and debuted at 29 on the strength of his four-seam velocity. He can get close to 100 mph and mixes in a slider and changeup. The Sox held onto him this winter because that velocity will always play in MLB.
What He Needs to Work On: By the time you actually read this, Ort could already be off the 40-man. His spring line is ugly: 4 HR, 7 ER and 11 H in 6.1 IP. The Sox have better right-handed relievers and will need a roster spot to add Jorge Alfaro, Raimel Tapia or a lefty reliever. He could sneak through waivers and return to Worcester.
James Paxton
What He Does Well: From 2017 until he went down with an elbow injury in 2021, Big Maple was a consistent strike-throwing force in the AL. He had an 11.1 K/9 and a 115 ERA+ in that time to go along with a 3.69 ERA and 3.30 FIP. Paxton’s four-seamer, curveball and cutter were all plus pitches in his prime.
What He Needs to Work On: Paxton has barely pitched the last few years as he’s worked back from several injuries, and the injury bug bit him again with a hamstring strain in his first 2023 spring training start. It was not a major injury, and Paxton should be back in game action soon. Finding consistency with his delivery, pitch mix and, most importantly, health could make him an X-factor for the 2023 Sox season.
Nick Pivetta
What He Does Well: In 2022, Pivetta was the only Sox SP to take the ball every fifth day. He finished with a shade under 180 IP and had stretches of relative brilliance. His most effective pitches were his four-seamer and slider, registering at -9 and -10 Run Value respectively per Baseball Savant. Pivetta is a fiery competitor who got huge outs in the 2021 postseason, and has the versatility to be a starter or reliever.
What He Needs to Work On: Pivetta went into 2022 with huge expectations and despite staying healthy, he did not live up to them. His curveball went from his best pitch in 2021 (-6 Run Value) to by far his worst in 2022 (+16). Getting that curveball back is the most important thing he can do in 2023. Pivetta could still be an odd man out in the rotation mix when everyone is healthy, and may also be a trade candidate.
Ceddanne Rafaela
What He Does Well: Despite not playing a game above AA, yet Rafaela might already be the best defensive CF in the entire game. He makes acrobatic plays and can even hack it at SS. He’s got pop in his bat and good hand/eye coordination to make contact. There’s a reason he’s on most Top 100 prospects lists, and it’s not just defense.
What He Needs to Work On: The single-biggest knock on Rafaela coming into 2023 has been his swing selection. While his K rate in the minors isn’t terrible, he swings at bad pitches and makes weak contact. Rafaela has shown better patience in 2023 spring training, but the real test will be how he performs when he gets into games as the minor league season starts.
Rob Refsnyder
What He Does Well: Refsnyder was a great story for the Sox in 2022, as he consistently hit and played good OF defense, earning himself a permanent spot and his first guaranteed MLB contract for 2023. Refsnyder can play all three OF spots and should get plenty of starts against LHPs after he slashed .359/.411/.594/1.005 against them in 2022.
What He Needs to Work On: Can we really expect Refsnyder to repeat his 2022 performance in 2023? Maybe not. He got off to a rough start at the plate in spring training but has come out of it some lately. Refsnyder doesn’t have huge expectations as a 4th OF, but if there’s an injury to a starter the club will need him to step up.
Joely Rodriguez
What He Does Well: Rodriguez is a veteran lefty bullpen arm who the Sox acquired to replace Matt Strahm for 2023. Rodriguez is excellent at getting guys to swing at pitches out of the zone and induce weak contact when they do actually hit it. His sinker has been his best pitch, but he showed high velocity on his four-seamer during his spring training appearance.
What He Needs to Work On: Rodriguez came out of his March 18 appearance with an oblique strain and he’ll start the season on the IL. It’s a tough setback for both Rodriguez and the Sox, who could use a second bullpen lefthander beyond Richard Bleier. It’s unclear how much time Rodriguez will miss, but upon his return walks will be something to watch as he finished in the bottom 6% of MLB pitchers there per Savant.
I’ll conclude my look at the 40-man with the final 10 players next time.
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Nice job!